2010210104 NLDS Chat Session Part 3

Harper

Power, patience, average, speed : the biggest problem seemingly (i'll say seemingly) is too much of a good thing. Specifically what to do with Zimm. Thoughts? I'm thinking play 1st vs lefties and LaRoche sits but that's not perfect. You pull your main power threat, a guy who's known as a good glove guy from 1st and you don't take out the worst offensive guy - namely Asdrubal

Chris

Playoffs give managers a lot of cover to do things they wouldn't ordinarily do. Like last year, the Braves finally pulled Uggla. So who's to say it won't be Zimmerman at first and Espi at 2nd against a LHP? That's probably the best combo you've got.

Harper

So you have Espy and Zimm in vs LHP and Cab and LaRoche vs RHP. You think it could happen. Do you think it will? You know assuming nothing weird like LaRoche hitting 4 homers in first 2 games

Chris

Will? Nah. Matt seems to like his veterans. If anyone's getting bumped, they'll find a way to put Harper on the bench.

Harper

Would you, could you play Zim at 3rd or is that a non-starter?

Chris

is it before the 14th inning?

Harper

13th

Basil

You mean Zimmermann the pitcher right?

Harper

Zimmerman, you know the face of the franchise after Stan Kasten

Basil

I'm not really sure what to do with Zimmerman, but I do like the prospect of a deep bench with flexibility. It seems as though the team has the platoon advantage scenarios pretty well covered.

Harper

So I'm hearing no to Zimm at the hot corner

Chris

Here's where Zimmerman is good: what's the one weakness of this team as you think about how a game actually would play out. (I'll wait…) Time's up. There's no good left-handed bat off the bench. Zimmerman essentially becomes your top pinch-hitter against right-handed pitching. That the best they have is Nate Schierholtz? Ugh. Zimmerman fills that role perfectly and honestly, I'd rather have a Michael Taylor or Stephen Souza than Nate at this point.

Basil

I see what you're saying. Good point.

Harper

We expect Nate the not-so-great to make it though. At least I do and if Soriano is off that leaves room for one more OF

Basil

In a five-game series, you probably take the extra position player right? In a seven-game series, you might need the extra pitcher...

Harper

Do you go Souza or Taylor? Based on limited info Taylor has the slight edge in speed and D but Souza is no slouch, got pop, and made that catch. I'm always for more pitching

Basil

I would take Taylor.

Chris

For the extremely limited role they'll have to play, does it matter? Which one's the better stealer/runner. That, barring catastrophe, is all they'll do.

Harper

Taylor then

Basil

Taylor probably for baserunning.

Chris

Related: up 3-1 in the 9th of game 5, do you bring in Taylor for Werth?

Harper

Rest of the bench is garbage but that's pretty much the modern bench. I bet most of playoff teams bench' wouldn't look any better.  

I've voiced my concerns about Ramos - I think he's crashing. Just me?

Basil

Not just you.

Chris

My worry about Ramos is that any time he has a runner on first, it seems it's an automatic double play. He played 88 games and still hit into 17 DPs Ian Desmond hits into a bunch too. He also had 17. In 280 more ABs.

Harper

And 1.4 million Ks. 17 GIDP is good enough for T13th

Chris

In 88 games!

Harper

Catchers do it though. I see Rosario w/ 17 at 106 games; Martin 16, 111; d'Arnaud 15, 106; Ellis 15, 93; but you're right 17 in 88 is special. It's just because of all the Nats on base!

Is the Asdrubal love affair over? It went pretty quickly from "this guy might be good!" to "eh, better than Espy" (which if Espy was used right, might not even be the case) If it is that's that easy 7-8-9 pitchers love to have

Basil

In general? Yes. But he has serious "playoff hero" potential. He's a hacky middle infielder with some pop. One of those guys always seems to rise up with a big home run or a hot series. Wouldn't rule that out here.

Harper

Lombo's Dad! Original Lombo.

Chris

I'd love to see the Cab/Espi platoon. Sorta maximize what you get out of both. They did that for a while right after the trade, but it seems like they stopped doing that as much in September. But then maybe I don't know what I'm talking about.

Basil

Did we talk much about Harper yet? Any chance you see Williams sitting him against a Bumgardner or Kershaw type? I guess I should specify which Harper!

Harper

You mean Bryce. I'm Harper. I can see it, because they want to work in Zimm BUT I bet he starts vs Kershaw because he hit a HR once. I get a feeling that the Zimm decision for G3 vs Bumgarner is going to be based on how guys did in G1 & G2. LaRoche 0-fer? He's out. Cab 0-fer? He's out. Bryce 0-fer? You get it

Basil

Just a feeling, but I don't see ALR sitting. Not many teams sit their main HR threat .... which I guess is what he is ... during the playoffs. Although maybe the glut here creates a special scenario. I think we all know what's going to happen. Harper, I mean, Bryce will go 1-for-7 with a walk in the first two games and then sit against the Bum. Because that's a narrative.

Harper

I'm going to assume Werth/Rendon/Span are all just set it and forget it. The key to me, well as much as one player can be key for this team, is Desmond. If he slumps a pitcher could kind of work around that top-half to some degree.

Chris

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=desmoia01&year=2014&t=b#half

My impression is that he had a terrible first half (remember all the Es early on!?) and a really good second half to get where he was. But looking at where he is, that's sorta right. He upped his contact quite a bit, but the power seems to have disappeared a little bit . It's not gone... but... was there a conscious change in approach there? Just one of those things?

Harper

Maybe. Hard to read first half in itself because it’s two parts; the absolute mess of April and the low average decent pop May and June. He’s been better recently so I'm not worried but if I'm going to pick someone outside of Ramos/Cab to disappear in playoffs I'd bet Ian

Chris

He's certainly the type of hitter I could see some crappy right-handed sinkerballer (I always picture them in Cards uniforms) completely exploiting and turning inside out. But that's the beauty of the playoffs... as Basil said above. Over five games, who the hell knows? Maybe Strasburg drives in 4 in the opening game on the way to a sweep.

Basil

Desmond clearly has the most tail-spin potential for this team in a series. He's going to play no matter what, and he's the type of hitter who's at a heightened risk to get eaten alive by all-out strikeout pitching. Might not be an issue against SF, could be later on.

Chris

Interesting that Basil suggests K pitchers would eat Desmond alive while I suggest that contact guys could kill him. That's not a good sign!

Basil

Chris: Sheehan has a nice saying. Variance trumps everything. Not literally true, but it's a nice saying.

Chris

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=desmoia01&year=2014&t=b#power (He ate finesse pitchers alive)

Harper

Any defensive concerns? You know I think LaRoche and Werth are not great but neither are Morse-lost out there

Chris

Other than Werth going full Buckner?

Harper

I wonder if Matty would pull him late? Wasn't an issue in no-hitter, Werth didn't play

Chris

I think I said that's what I'm most looking forward to about this series: watching Span hook a ball into the left-field corner, and seeing how far he can run.

Harper

Morse is lucky if he finds it before Span is around 2nd, let alone gets to it

I don't worry about Matt do you? At worst he's going to be by the book, at best we might see something smart here or there

Chris

I'm amazed at how differently I'd answer this question now versus mid-May.

Harper

Well he still might bunt early with Bryce - I'm not ruling that out, so there's still hate-tweet possibilities for you

Basil

I expect Matt will be very by-the-book.

Chris

He was pretty consistently a bunter only with SP. Harper's bunts, it seems, were all his doing. And against a tough lefty, honestly, not necessarily the dumbest idea.

Basil

There's not really much bunting potential out there. The no. 2 hitter is an offensive force, relative to the slappy 2-hole type who does do bunting.

Harper

So nothing's perfect but what I'm hearing here is same as everywhere : offense good, SP great, RP good to great, Matty good enough. What are you feeling for the series? I called 3-1 in my blog but as you well know Needham, the playoffs are a crapshoot

Basil

Nats in four. Just my impression, no deep research -- who has time for that? -- but I see the Giants as a favorable match-up in many respects.

Harper

It's funny that working through this - how short a 5 game series really is. 3 losses seems like a lot but if the Nats lose one of the first two at home, looking at Bumgarner in G3, it gets real very quickly

Chris

The safe call is in 4, right? So I'll go with a sweep.

Harper

For who? Yeah if you're a pundit always go 4 for the team you like. 6 in a 7 game series usually you're off no more than a game and can tout that

Any final thoughts? Personally I hope the Mike Morse love is kept to a minimum and he doesn’t do anything big. I also want to see Lincecum at some point in a Nats rout.

Chris

Just wrapping around to the point I made earlier... I expect this team to win. I'm confident they will. While they could lose, I'd really be surprised. It's awesome going into something like this thinking that. Basically, for SF to win, there are about 10 different things that'd have to happen. For us? That list is much shorter.

Harper

Agree. Losing three or even 2 honestly, would surprise me. Not that the Nats that much better than SF, but I can plot out the Nats winning three before the Giants win #2 easier than the reverse

Basil

Chris pretty much nails it. A lot has to go right for SF to win. I'd almost rather see them in a best-of-7, as I think they'd get worn down, but you take what you're given. I do expect the Nats to make the NLCS.

Harper

Thanks for the chat and let's all hope this ends with Needham on vacation freaking out because he can't get the World Series on TV

Chris

:(

2104 NLDS Chat Session Part 2

Harper
Ok back! You know my thoughts on the rotation - Should be Roark, rather than Gio. Minor quibble but I feel you go with your best at this time of year

Basil

I'm not sure that the break between them is that huge. Gio offers strikeout ability, Roark might go an out or two deeper. Not saying that you're saying it's huge....you did say minor quibble.

Harper

It isn't, but the "big" reasons for going with Gio are silly. Roark isn't a pen guy. Hasn't been for years. And saving him for the "next five Octobers" (Luv ya Boz!) is silly...

Basil

I don't read Boz. Not to turn it back to the media topic, but I'll read Kilgore and Barry Savalaga.
Harper
It's not as bad, but that thinking reminds me of the idea that they had that they shouldn't ride Christian Garcia into the ground as a reliever because he could be a great starter for years. He had a lot more injury Q's but same thing applies. We're not talking 19 year old arms here. Use 'em when you got 'em or Smoke 'em if you got 'em

Basil

Yes, the Saul Rivera axiom.

That from a movie?

Harper

Yippee Kai-yay Mister Falcon. This is dry. Let's be more internetty. Which Nats is which Die Hard character? Don't say Span is Argyle That's racist!

Basil

Clippard is Tony. Look him up.

(Set-up guy to the telecom infiltration, wears glasses.)

Harper

Got it. If we expand to the playoffs Mattingly is definitely on the SWAT that tries to break into Nakatomi. But seriously - That's my only starting concern. I think Gio has more "blow-up tendency" so I'd rather have Roark. I still think Fister isn't as good as the year he's had but that's only means he's not awesome, merely very good

(I knew we'd sidetrack into Die Hard if Chris ever dropped out)

Chris

The thing with Gio is that he's basically been very good for the last month or so.

Basil

Gio can miss bats. That's very important in October.

Chris

There was a little bit of chatter from the scout-types that his mid-season struggles weren't so much injury, but just a lost 'feel' for his curve. So while I was yammering about shutting him down for a month to rest, others made the point that the only way he's going to get feel back is by actually pitching. He pitched. He pitched well. Score one for the scouts.

Harper

You know when else Gio did well in Sept?  2012. 1.74 ERA after middling June and July. Just saying. Just like the Pirates hotness -I try to go more "whole season" when looking at who to play unless there's a good reason not to

Chris

CASE CLOSED!

Harper

We can rate the superhunks now

Chris

Well, playing that game, if you're designing your playoff roster on April 1, you've got Gio as 2 or 3. Roark off, right? So... if we're thinking they're close now, might as well go with the one you had more faith in initially, right?

Basil

There's that. Unless there's a material change to Roark and/or Gio.

Harper

Not April 1, full season. Like I'm all for not having Stras start #1.

Chris - you hate Strasburg more than you hate every other Nat. Worried about him?

Chris

We have more info now to suspect that Roark is better than we thought. And our perception of Gio has taken a beating... but there's also a plausible explanation for his lost few months. So go Gio. Whatever. six of one.

Why would I hate Strasburg? He's got luck on his side!

Harper

Post season + regression = MVP

Chris

He's a different pitcher now than he was. His problem has been his inability to get his head out of his butt long enough to realize he's one of the five best pitchers on the planet. Matty, I think, has done an excellent job bringing him along, instilling some confidence in him -- things such as extending him an extra inning... letting him work through a 6th inning jam, etc. From day one, they've done everything to indicate that they have full faith in his abilities and that he's their ace. If he's not worrying about that, he's worrying about the important things like throwing his best pitches to the right spots.

Basil

Basically, Strasburg is 90% of a great pitcher. That10% tends to bunch up pretty badly. He has difficulty digging out of bad situations.Or has had.

Chris

I think there's also something to the piece Kilgore wrote a week or two ago: his season turned when he started pitching to his strengths, not the batters. When you've got stuff as good as his, you're the cock of the walk. It's the batters that need to adjust to you. This is where I think that Lobaton's influence has helped too. The Rays have a very unique way of approaching batters, and I think he brought some of that over with him. Nats pitchers throwing to him, for example, threw a higher percentage of offspeed pitches as pitch one than they did under other catchers or previous seasons. All those little things add up. Better strategy, and fewer worries about creature comforts... and he's finally what we expect him to be.

Harper

For three games

Chris

No fun with endpoints here... I just grabbed a date long ago enough: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=strasst01&t=p&year=2014&share=2.53#93-109-sum:pitching_gamelogs

2.61 ERA over 17 starts with an opposing slash line of .220 .258 .370? Yeah, sign me up. Little too much power yielded... but when they're only hitting .220, you can live with it.

Harper

The home run has been a bit of a bugaboo for him but only 1 in last 5 games

Chris

Yes, I just realized I defended and endorsed both Drew Storen and Stephen Strasburg in the last hour.

Harper

We're 20 minutes from you saying Acta and Bowden combo wasn't all that bad

Chris

They did do some great things!

Harper

for Jose Rijo, for a year or two

Basil

From a different point of view, wasn't BABIP the bugaboo for awhile?

Chris

Yeah, it was. BUT (I won't go into my full rant here) his BABIP was a reflection of his terrible command. When you leave a so-so fastball (and something was different with it early in the year) right down the pipe, it's gonna get ripped.

Harper

Any thoughts on ZNN or Fister?

ZNN makes my mind go blank. I loved that no-hitter from last week. Who pitched it? He's just so consistent, silly quality start streaks aside

Chris

Yeah, Zimmnn has always been my favorite pitcher to watch. He just goes up there and does his thing. I love that quote from spring training where McCatty had Zim and Strasburg answer the question: What're you trying to do on the mound. Strasburg said something like throw a no-hitter. Zim said he was just trying to get one out at a time. And that's all he does.

Harper

They are really going to miss Zimm when he's on the Brewers, but that's for a post post-season discussion

 

Chris

It's ok to point out that Fister's kinda been... meh lately, right? Of course Meh for Fister is still pretty good. Seems like his stretch has either been 6 scoreless of 3 in 5.

Harper

His walks have gone up I think that's what's causing his mehness. 2 out of 3 starts Fister is going to give up hits but not XBH ones so it's all BB related how the game ends up. Not a lot of hits mind you but enough for a couple runs in 6 IP

I think Fister's last outing hides a lot of what he had done recently 9Ks, 3H, 0BBs; but in 6 games before that it was like 2-3 Ks a game 6 H, 1-2 BB and 1 HR. I think the Giants are the worst team for him because they aren't looking to walk and can get by without the home run

Chris

The other thing with Fister is that at times it didn't seem that Matt trusted him. He'd be cruising along at 84 pitches in the 6th, a runner would get on, and the hook would come. I suspect we'll see a really short leash with him these playoffs too.

2014 NLDS Chat Session Part 1

Chris
This sorta feels like going to a Def Leppard concert. The band's back together! They're not quite what they used to be, are they?

Harper

So you guys happy with last night?

Chris

I'd have been happier with about 14 more innings and an injury or three. But all things considered, the Pirates scared me more, for reasons that don't seem obvious after last night's result.

Basil

I wanted to see the Pirates. It's an even year, so I figure now the Giants will win it all.

Harper

I wanted the Pirates but I think (think) the Giants are better for the Nats. Offensively they don't scare me as much

Chris

The Pirates pen strikes me as a lot stronger than the Giants. (Note: no actual research done). And in the playoffs, if you've got a smart manager (cough cough) you can really leverage those innings to shut the game down. Plus, I really like the idea of the Nats being able to hit about .813 on balls to left field.

Basil

Now MASN is ready with the ad campaign .... "Jake Peavy, Austin Kearns is coming for you!"

Yeah, the Giants look like kind of a mess. Left field, for instance. And the rotation behind Mad Bum and I guess Peavy doesn't seem so intimidating at this point.

Chris

I saw the stat that they were trotting around about how Tim Hudson has like a 2.50 ERA over the last 10 years against the Nats. But then someone pointed out that since the team got good in 2012, it's more like 3.50. So, this Hudson owns the Nats junk? Poppycock. Although that being said, he's that guile-filled Cardinals-sorta pitcher that terrifies me. The kind that if he's on, can use a team's aggressiveness against them. 6 innings later, you've had 4 baserunners and are losing 2-1.
 
Harper
I've always felt the Nats did fine versus Hudson. You'd look up and in the 2nd they'd have 2, by the 6th they'd have 4 and they'd win.

Chris

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=oppon%7CWSN%7Chudsoti01%7Cpitch%7CAB%7C

Some good, some bad there.

Basil

I have the same subjective concern Chris does. It's the playoffs. You get a good start, some guy like Crawford bumps into one, and all of a sudden you're lining up three innings of your best relievers.

Chris

But that spins into the big picture for me going into the playoffs. I don't know if the Nats will win the World Series, but on any given night, I'm pretty confident they'll win. It's a rare feeling when you expect, not hope, to win.

Basil

Oh, certainly. They're solid to very good to excellent in most facets.

Speaking of which, can we talk about the bullpen?

Chris

No.

Basil

It's settled then!

Harper

it's OK! Not as good as people want you to believe.

Chris

Way to hijack the conversation, basil

Basil

Sorry :-(

Harper

I think there isn't a spot in the pen I don't question. Storen's been great but has 2012 hanging over his head. If there is anything about Storen you do worry about, its mental make-up

Basil

I love Clippard, but he's fairly combustible for a very good shut-down reliever with nice peripherals.

Harper

Yeah, Clippard isn't the Clip of the past few years. He's still good but he's caught some breaks this year and when he goes - he goes.

Chris

Even when Clip's going well, he's as likely to put two on and escape as he is to shut them down 1-2-3.

Harper

As far as Matty is concerned that's 8-9 with Soriano, who is toast.

Chris

Does Soriano make your roster? I don't think he does. For a middle guy, if he can't go at least 1.2, what's the point?

Harper

He doesn't make mine and based on usage I don't see how he makes the Nats

Basil

It's a pretty big story if he doesn't, no?

Harper

Totally, but only to media and to Soriano, who guess what, isn't there!

Chris

Here's the thing on him: if you believe the stories, he's not a Rizzo guy. He was a Lerner signing. And he's done at the end of the year. Rizzo probably doesn't feel any loyalty to him in a degree he would if he was trying to clean up his own mistake.

Harper

The worst outcome would be leaving him off and Storen implodes. Casual fans (& MASN Commenters) will explode

Chris

I don't think so

Harper

HMMMMMMMMM?

Chris

I think the casual fans and MASN commenters hate Soriano.  I think they'd say "If that piece of crap was better, we wouldn't have had to put poor Droooooooooo into an uncomfortable role"

Harper

These people who live in your head are very forgiving. Like the aftermath of the Royals game. The issue was using Ventura but to a good segment of fans/sports guys the issue was pulling Shields  

Basil

It's pretty much a hindsight trap, as Harper says. If something goes wrong, people will say that the Nats had a 30-plus save guy on the sidelines.

Chris

"people". who? The national level writers will. The local guys will shrug and move on. We're not in New York in terms of bomb-throwing, poo-stirring media.

Basil

I think we can agree that elements in the media will turn any bad result into a bad decision.

Harper

Local guys will get it.  I'm talking about what I'll hear on the radios and read on the interwebs

Chris

That's on you for listening to the radio then!

Basil

Next on the Subway Fresh Take Hotline, Chris....

Chris

But circling back...

I'm the biggest Storen-hater around here, and I'm supremely confident in him this postseason.

Harper

Wait a second. That doesn't make sense!

Chris

His issues last year, I think, were an offshoot of some injuries, and some bad mechanics. He's gotten that fixed. He's got a regular repeatable delivery and he's throwing his pitches (mostly) to the right spots with the right amount of movement.  He's not the same pitcher he was in 2013.

And if Davey weren't such a crap-for-brains, Storen wouldn't have been asked to throw 30 pitches on back-to-back-to-back nights in 2012.

Basil

This is where I'm kind of blind on the issue. I'm a cord-cutter, I'm not local, and I don't do fancy internet stuff. So I don't watch much, can't see Storen pitch. But Charlie & Dave have portrayed him as pretty much nails.

Harper

Storen 2014 is the Storen we thought he'd be up through Game 4 2012

Chris

The Storen sucks narrative (which I've championed!) was built on terrible bullpen usage by a senile manager, followed by a lost sort of year where he was battling through mechanics and injury.

Harper

Yes. Tou sold a myth #StorenWarningisaLie

What about the rest of the pen - you think Roark will be ok in there? You trust Williams to make the right moves if a starter can't make it past 5?  I'm fine with Matty 8th and on. Doesn't seem married to

Clippard if he looks bad, but before that I'm iffy.  

Basil

Roark could functionally be another Stammen. A bridge or perhaps insurance if Gio hits 110 pitches in the 4th.

Chris

I think Matty really used these last six weeks or so testing his guys out in various roles. I don't have confidence, per se, in any single one of these pitchers. But he has options from both side of the plate and, if he does it right, can really get some favorable matchups going.

Basil

Feeling good about the lefty situation?

Chris

Thornton's a beast. Blevins had a bad year, but has been decent against LHB most of the time, especially late.

Harper

If Blevins faces a righty I'm advocating for Yost. That's about the only unbreakable rule for this pen
 
Basil
Might not matter too much in round one. It's pretty much just Belt from the left side, I think.

Harper

I like the rest of the guys - though Stammen has kind of been like Clip this year. Still good but feeling like "Ok we're nearing the end of what he was"
 
Basil
Stammen is a nice guy to have in the regular season. I do like relievers who go more than one. That said, he's more of a marathon type than a sprint type, and you need the sprinters in the playoffs.

Harper

I think Chris has it right in that the arms are here but it's a mix and match thing before the end. Personally I think it'll only come up once or twice this playoffs and I think Matt will get it right. I think. It's not that hard - obvious choices will do fine

Chris

The other factor: Gio aside, do you really think any of our pitchers'll be out before the 6th inning?

Harper

Not against SF, they don't walk. Maybe 1 in 4 games someone will just get hit.

Basil

No. Not really. So we're talking about the seventh inning, mainly.

Chris

Then it's just a matter of patchworking through an inning or so before the clip 'n' save returns and if they are out before the 6th inning, how Stammen's looking is probably the least of the worries.

Harper

True.  Part of me worries that Matt might have a quick trigger on Clip in the 8^th, but then I think : I WANT a quick trigger in the playoffs, especially if the other arms are good enough and I think they are.

Chris
it's not so much that they're good enough (though they're plenty good). It's that they're all mostly interchangeable, so find the ones that are having a good night.

Harper

Detwiler make it?

Basil

Totally forgot about him.

Harper

It's either him or Blevins for LHP. You really don't need 3 multi-inning relievers do you?

Basil

Not in this series. I can see the value of a lefty who can stretch it out a bit in a longer series, though