Roundtable #6 - We're back from the dead, the Nats...not so much

ROUNDATABLE! It's back and potentially better than ever. That's really a judgement for you to make. Starring Miss Chatter from Just a Nats Fan and Chris (not Needham) from Nationals Enquirer.


HARPER

When we last left the Nats two months ago they were winning less than 40% of their games, 2 out of 3 outfielders and LoDuca were dragging down the offense, Boone was subbing in for Nick...man, thank god that's over!

This team is horrible and on pace to lose 100 games, when in April there were off-handed hopes for a run at .500. (but not by me, I had them at 73 wins, thank you very much) The question - What went wrong? The better question - DID anything go wrong or is this the inevitable bad team + bad luck = bad season equation the Nats had gotten lucky enough to avoid the past 3 years?


MISS CHATTER

My boss and I took over/unders on .500 just before the season began. He confidently took the over while I took the under since the roster looked much the same as last year's. I'm the winner! Although that's a bet I'd rather lose. I did not expect them to be *this* bad. What went wrong? If anyone knew the answer, then surely there'd be a solution. I think some bad luck has to get thrown in there. Who knew we'd lose so many starting players to injuries? Many players are underperforming. At this point, we're starting half the bench in games.

Who knows how the rest of the season will play out, though. Harper, your 73 wins could still be feasible. The W-L record isn't really far off from what it was last year (or the year before). If they win tonight, they've only lost one more game than at the midway point last season.

(Now I'm waiting to see if Nationals Enquirer gives funny one-liners for roundtable responses...)


NATS ENQUIRER

Offense: Offensive! Bullpen: Bullsh*t! Injuries: overblown!

Ok, let's see if I can see form a complete sentence or two...

Starting with the topic of preseason predictions, before ducking the real question: I took a look back at the preseason predictions post I put up on the Sunday morning of Opening Night, and it went something like this "....our gut tells us that in the end, the 2008 Nationals will end up looking strikingly similar to the 2007 model: not a historically bad team, just a hard working, but somewhat forgettable sub-.500 one. As a fan, I ask for one thing: just play hard." I went on to say they'd go 76-86 (4th place, NL East). That might end up being a dumber prediction then when I predicted Jerome Williams would lead the team in starts in 2007.

Little did I know that the 2008 model would look nothing like the 2007 model at the season's halfway point. Sure, as you said [Cathy], the record is essentially the same as last year: but from where I'm sitting these guys don't appear to be a hard working or forgettable sub-.500 team, like I thought they'd be. No, it looks more like a lazy, limping, disinterested, young (lowercase, not uppercase as in Dmitri), potentially-memorable-for-being-so-bad-at-times team. They basically need to play .500 ball the rest of the way in order to match last year's win total. It's not happening.

So what's going wrong? I'll oversimplify it: Starting pitching has been mostly good, offense has been totally bad, bullpen has been horrendous (especially in the last couple of weeks), but I think placing blame on injuries is overblown -- Zimmerman and Kearns (especially Kearns) were both struggling before they went down. It's been more about players simply not performing...


HARPER

Hey I had Jerome leading the team in wins so I'm clearly the dumbest one here.

That being out there, I will say that the injury to Zimmerman does matter. Sure he was underperforming, but it was just a typical slow start for Ryan. From April to May he went from .233 / .270 / .362 to .289 /.319 / .511. Cherry picking the best stats from the rest of the guys who played third we get .217 / .357 / .357. Bleh. Zimmerman would be hitting circles around that. I would say the injury to Cordero also matters, but that's not a freak injury. Constant heavy bullpen use is going to break young arms.

For everyone else though, these players not "not performing", as much as they are "not good". Most players are hitting numbers around their career marks, or expected based on last-years performance. And for those few that could be doing better, say Milledge and Kearns, the Nats have guys like Flores and Guzman overperforming. Bullpen arms are bullpen arms. Very variable. You are going to have bad years if you rely on only young guys.

However, I think we were thrown off not because we were wrong about the talent level of this squad, which is a bit better than last year, or because they are super-lazy this year, but because the past teams fooled us. They always won a couple games more than they should. A couple games over .500 in 1-run games, a couple games over what you'd expect from their runs scored / runs allowed. I think I've said this before: "The 2008 team could lose more games than the 2007 squad even though they are probably a better team" We're seeing nothing but minor variation in luck but when that means 72 wins versus 65 wins, it seems so big.


MISS CHATTER

I just returned from the Baseball 101 Clinic for women, where the coaches were surprisingly honest and didn't make excuses for the players' performance this season. I learned the secret to their laziness and distractions this season - the new stadium! It's like a grand hotel and they've become posh and pampered, soaking up all the amenities that they've lost focus on the game! They played hard and hustled at RFK because they couldn't wait to get the heck out of there. Some are so wowed by the giant HD scoreboard, that they turn around to admire its clarity and definition on replays (checking out their smooth -- or not -- moves), then miss signs on positioning for the next batter... Ok, that probably isn't really it, but just a theory to throw out there.


NATS ENQUIRER

Harper, on the injury question, no doubt, having Zimmerman, Nick Johnson, Cordero, out matters. But my biggest complaint around the issue has been the consistent refrain from the Nationals: trying to convince everyone that that's the primary reason for the team's poor performance That's how they've been spinning it, and I refuse to buy it. Yes, injuries matter, but that's just part of the story...part of it has to be, like you suggested, misjudgments in talent level...

Do I really think this team is lazy and disinterested? Maybe lackadaisical is more appropriate, instead of lazy. Disinterested? Sometimes. It's been amazing to watch the way an inning just suddenly blows up because of, at least from where I'm sitting on my couch, what appears to be a lack of fundamentals, lack of hustle…seems to be a recurring theme every few games…you'll get a 5 minute stretch where things just devolve, Bad News Bears style.

MissChatter: I hadn't thought about the new stadium effect on these guys as a reason for some of the above…but it's been on the road, too! Hey, here's a question for you: was Tim Tolman at the Baseball 101 Clinic? Did he get several women thrown out at the plate?


MISS CHATTER

Yes, Tim Tolman was at the clinic manning the base-running drills! Since it was 101, we didn't get to the point of practicing running home! I really wanted to try out my Nick Johnson-style slide too.

Good point on the road losses. Home record is 17-25 and road is 15-24. There goes that theory!

Not everyone is blaming injuries. Manny Acta has been saying he will not use injuries as an excuse, but that the loss of players is an opportunity for the younger guys. What they do with that opportunity is up to them. Play hard or buh-bye. Next in line! Do you think that's what we're seeing?

I've been a little horrified to begin reading fans start clamoring for Manny's head over the last week. I don't think there's a firemannyacta.com website yet (checking... whew, nope!), but it seems very premature to begin blaming him (although I do wish he'd let the starting pitchers go deeper into the game when they're in a good groove). Do we need to place blame at this point regarding the product on the field? Or should we all swallow our displeasure and wait for the younger guys to develop and arrive up here (and constantly remind ourselves that is coming someday in the future)? Although, the mental and physical mistakes are hard to swallow. If you were the manager or the general manager, what would you do to improve the team right now?


NATS ENQUIRER

There's no firemannyacta.com yet, but give it another week; certainly, some enterprising blogger will go out and register the domain name...won't be long now (hold on a minute, while I proceed to checkout on godaddy.com)...

....Done! Sure, maybe Manny is saying he won't use injuries as an excuse, but my impression from reading comments from Bowden and Kasten is that they're perfectly willing to do so...just talking about what I've read in the papers, and on Nationals dot com, etc. My impression is that this is the party line.But to answer the question of if we need to place blame regarding the product on the field? To correct what I said previously: Harper DIDN'T suggest misjudgments in talent level are part of the equation...but, I WOULD suggest that...I guess I'm not convinced this year's model is more talented than last year's. But I am convinced they aren't as lucky.

You ask an interesting question, though, MissChatter: If I were the manager or the general manager, what would I do to improve the team right now? I'm not sure there's much they can do. 2008 is probably more of an open audition the rest of the way. What do you guys think? And looking past this year: do you think they'll deviate from The Plan in the offseason?


HARPER

I've heard the injury line too (and it's only going to get louder if Milledge is out a while). The thing is injuries happen. This isn't "Fick Everlasting", you aren't going to go through a season without them, you just hope it takes out the Ryan Langerhanseses of the world and not the Ryan Zimmermans. Some years your team is going to get unlucky but it should be built in a way to avoid total collapse in that situation. The Nats however aren't built that way - they are built to skate by as cheaply as possible. This year - the first year they have been unlucky the whole thing is unraveling. Welcome to the no room for error zone of cheap ownership.

I don't know if there is a way to improve the team for the rest 2008. They built this concrete airplane and there's no flying it now. We might see some improvement by moving up a young guy or two for a cup of coffee but then again there isn't anyone dying to be moved up. No we're stuck with the rosters as is. If Zimmerman doesn't come back on fire, or if Dukes can't start putting these good games together more frequently, or if Guzman slows down (did I say if? I mean when, when Guzman slows down) things could get real ugly.

As for the offseason, the whole Guzman deal not only tells me they aren't going to deviate from the plan but it shows me exactly what the Plan is. There is some youth on the field now, and in the minors now, if things work out better than expected the Nats could have 5-6 good young players on the field in say...2010/2011. So you could take a gamble and sign someone decent through those years to be there when the team grows up into a contender. In the meantime the fans would have something to cheer. Sure it would mean a few more million into the team, assuming you maintain the minors and draft signings as is, but I think something like that is worthwhile. The front office doesn't see it this way though. The Plan is about the future but not about prognostication. They will put money into this team only when they are sure they got those 5-6 young players, not when they think they have it.

This could be a big problem because even if you draft smart, and trade well there are still no guarantees of building D-backs / Marlins type squads. It could take years for them to be sure they could have a competitive team with one or two big free agent signings. Can the fans stand 5 more years of this?


MISS CHATTER

By not being built to avoid collapse when injuries happen, does it seem the plan may be rushed before it's ripe? Roger Bernadina was called up from AA to replace Milledge and will start in the leadoff spot today. Too soon? (Definitely will be interesting to watch, though!)

It's funny - when Jim Bowden did a live online chat last week, I submitted a question asking about the future of the middle infield and what his vision is for next season and beyond (this was before the news broke that they were trying to negotiate a deal with Guzman). Smiley Gonzalez is still far too many years in the future to slot in any time soon. I pointed out that there weren't any immediate prospects waiting in the wings at SS or 2B and wondered what he planned on doing since I assumed he was not going to resign Lopez and Guzman will be a free agent. The question was skipped over in favor of a bunch of questions by the same person. Interesting that now news is coming out about the negotiations and possible trade with the Orioles for Lopez (of course, that trade won't solve it either). It still isn't a complete solution and provides no glimpses into what we can expect a few years down the road.

And with the collapse, who can we really trade? We need every body we have out there still able to pitch, hit, run, and throw.


HARPER

I think their plan for the future. Is (1) draft + (2) sign & trade mediocre vets for mediocre prospects + (3) time = Awesome Nats! What is he going to say about the MI? That the Nats are going to wait until Smiley or Stephen King or someone else because good and until then enjoy your replacement level vets? They don't want to say that.

The Nats may in fact rush a player or two (it rushed it for Flores to the Nats benefit, but for batters I think it doesn' t really matter. If you can hit major league pitching you'll catch up to it eventually. As long as it doesn't touch the pitchers, which it really hasn't yet, I'm ok with bringing up whatever youngsters they have.

Right now Guzman is the only tradeable quantity (you just can't trade Rauch given the bullpen problems), maybe Belliard or Young if they keep hitting. But just like we thought they'd deal Young and they locked him up, looks like they are going to lock up Guzman now. So maybe for get about the (2) part of the equation above.


NATS ENQUIRER

Yeah, Harper, that's the Plan in a nutshell equation. But it'll be interesting to see if they go out and try to sign up one big 'name' in the off-season, though: If in the face of the likely PR nightmare after a ~100 loss season, they go out and try to break Ted Lerner's piggy bank to sign one big name. Goes against everything the organization has said to date -- and Kasten has made it clear time and time again in the papers that he hates signing FAs. But you have to wonder if they'll cave in to pressure and deviate a little bit; partially in an attempt to sell some of those gold-plated seats behind home plate no one's buying.

And on the subject of tradable commodities: you really think it's only Guzman, Belliard, and Young? I'm convinced they'll be shopping Rauch heavily – in spite of all the problems with the bullpen, and especially if Chief pitches ok for a few weeks in July after he comes back. And you have to include Tim Redding on the list, don't you?

Agreed, MissChatter: the online chat with Bowden last week was all fluff, a complete waste of time for everyone -- and I include Jimbo in 'everyone'. I'm sure you're not the only one who had good questions skipped over in favor of softballs. Would've loved to hear Jimbo's answer to your question He ignored mine, too: I'm sure the poor guy was getting peppered with insults and questions about his Segway.

HARPER

I can't see them doing it, primarily because there isn't anyone worth going crazy over in the free agent market, (ok, ok primarily because they are cheap, secondarily because there isn't anyone worth it). And while I would have liked to see them go strong after one of the MIs, I still felt that they should be smart about it and that would mean they'd likely be outbid. So not getting a big FA name doesn't bother me, but the spin will.

Ugh - this is awful, the whole "we can't spend on the majors because we're focused on the minors". The idea that there is only $X in the bucket and once it's spent it's gone. The $X is a number set by the Lerner's if they wanted to they could put in 10, 20, 30 million more. Improvement in the minors does not have to be mutually exclusive with improvement in the majors. But they act like it is and enough people buy it up that they can get away with it.

As for deals - they could trade Rauch, Redding but both are cheap, decent, and young. The asking price is going to be super high. Who's going to deal the Nats a young pitching prospect maybe a year away for one of these guys?


NATS ENQUIRER

Not getting a big name FA doesn't bother me either...but I still wouldn't rule it out (even with the cited cheapness and the lack of value out there)...Plus, Brian Cashman will want to put his stamp on the club right away when he takes over in November by signing up someone like Mark Teixeira. (*ducking as Haper and MissChatter begin throwing things at me*). I'm kidding! I'm kidding!

About dealing: if this really is all about 2010 and beyond (is it too soon to declare 2009 a lost cause? Ha!), then I think the Nats need to be willing to listen to offers for just about anyone on the roster as the trade deadline approaches; that's all I'm saying. There aren't too many names on the major league roster that are untouchable. And that includes cheap, decent, and relatively young guys like Rauch & Redding.


HARPER

You can listen to everything, but trading Rauch, Redding, Cordero, isn't just giving up on 2009, it's raising the white flag for 2010 as well. (which might be realistic but dammit if I'm going to watch that.)


NATS ENQUIRER

Damn. Cross out what I said a little while back about "if Cordero pitches well when he comes back in July" or whatever. Torn labrum. Poor guy. Anyway, took a quick look at the 40-man roster, and see maybe six untouchables. Wouldn't lose sleep over the others...


MISS CHATTER

Oh man, another season-ending (potentially) diagnosis.

Scratch what I said about 'too soon' for Bernadina! Apparently he's major league ready despite coming straight from AA. So sue me, I'm not Brian at NFA!

So what six untouchables?


NATS ENQUIRER

Don't feel bad, we all reserve the right to be wrong sometimes (check about 90% of everything I've said previously...). I don't know, I'm not convinced about Rogearvin...

So, the only way I list my six untouchables from the 40-man is if you both agree to list yours, too, agreed? Ok? Good. Here it goes (*ducking*):

Flores. Lannan. Detwiler. Balester. Mock. Zimmerman.

(***note that as I write this, Balester isn't officially on the 40-man, but given that he's pitching tomorrow night, I'm including him there)


MISS CHATTER

But I do have to say (to throw a little positivity into this conversation)... given all the negatives about this season, you have to admit that games like yesterday when the team wins on a walk-off home run in the bottom of an extra-inning game is all the sweeter. Not only for the fans, but obviously for the team. Did you see the joy and excitement on all their faces as they swarmed Belliard at home plate? If they were accustomed to winning, I doubt the celebration would have been so exuberant for all. But when you really don't expect to win.... the little victories like that are grand.

Putting my "I'm Jim Bowden" hat on here - I agree with your list and I would potentially add Lastings Milledge and Jason Bergmann. I'd likely hang on to Rauch too unless the offer was too good to pass up.

[Ed note - Rauch proceeds to blow Monday's game]

Ermm... can I take that back? (Nah, I won't base that on one single game).


HARPER

A nice little come from ahead loss to wrap up the roundtable. Looks like everyone wants Guzman in the All-Star game including Rauch...

Untouchables? Certainly not Rogervin. (stick with you're first instincts Miss Chatter). I'd replace Mock (likely not to stick around this year which makes him in essence a 26 yr old rookie next year) with Milledge, but these are really only 2008 to 2009 untouchables. Who knows what the next year will bring (well other than another 90+ losses)

Miss Chatter - games like that can be sweeter, (For example I still remember a crappy NY Giants football team beating an undefeated Broncos team a few years back) but I think most Nats fans would trade a little sweetness for bitterness if it meant a 90 win season and a playoff birth. You know, save it for dessert.

Roundtable #6: Two weeks for Three wins for Four...

HARPER

The year started so perfectly, didn't it? Zimmerman's HR winning that first game in Nationals Park to a sold out crowd. The Nats in Philly winning a slugfest showing off the new offense and then a pitchers duel. Man, forget .500! Start printing those playoff tickets!

Now the Nats are 3-7, which if they were a hockey team would still probably give them an inside track for a playoff spot, but as a baseball team is a bad start and only one game better than last years debacle that was April.

Since you are two of the most omniscient guys out there...what happened? Reality setting in? Nats getting unlucky? Just normal baseball streakiness? Global Warming? Someone broke the Seventh Seal? What?

BRANDON

I think some of it is bad luck and some of it is pitching (those overlap, I know). As far as bad luck goes, the Nats have been losing close games for the most part. After ten games they have a RS/RA differential of 9 (44 runs scored, 53 runs allowed). Last Wednesday's 10-4 loss to Florida was the only blowout loss they've had; all others came by three runs or less. Of course, a loss is a loss, and seven straight is enough to sap the will of just about anyone, but it's at least encouraging to see that they are not getting totally outclassed. I've seen lots of deep fly balls stop just short of home runs in the cold April air, particularly off Zimmerman's bat. If those balls carry a few more feet the Nats are 5-5 or better.

As far as pitching goes, I remain frustrated that Odalis Perez was the team's only new starting pitching pickup in the offseason. The staff that got torn asunder last year is all back for another year, and while the improved offense figures to score more runs, you can't win if the other team is scoring more. What's telling about the pitching staff is the details of their outings. We've seen a few games now where the starter will take a scoreless or one-run game into the 5th or 6th only to get annihilated by the opposing team. Bergmann's Wednesday night performance comes to mind, as does Perez's performance on Thursday. You can only do the come-from-behind thing so many times. This team is simply not going to be very good until some of the young arms in the minors are ready or until the team invests in some better starting pitching. Both of those seem two years off at best.

BASIL

I could spend three paragraphs discussing the way a "streak" is perceived as opposed to gradually poor play, but whatever. We're all here to talk about the Seventh Seal, anyway.
The (current) seven-game losing streak makes it appear that all has gone to pot, but generally speaking, if you improve the luck by 10% and tweak the team's quality/crispness of play by another 10%, then you have some different results. As Brandon points out, the Nats have played a number of close games, up and down, topsy-turvy type affairs. This is a bit different than the absymal start to last season, when it took ten games to stake a single in-game lead (as opposed to that walkoff in game three). At any rate, the luck will even out, at least somewhat, over the course of the season.

But there are certainly some ugly aspects. Several of the hitters appear to have little idea of an effective approach at the plate so far. Although there have been a few solid performances (and one sterling one by Tim Redding), the starters don't inspire much confidence. The bullpen has a few reliable members but doesn't seem completely in sync yet. The defensive and fundamental aspects have had their poor moments. Wait and see; this is a bad stretch, but I don't think this is going to be a really bad team.

HARPER

So basically the Nats are just ugly at the plate, on the mound, in relief, and occasionally in the field? Thank god, I thought this was serious...

I think you captured the feeling, Basil. To me, it's almost like even though you know the Nats shouldn't be 3-7, it feels like they deserve to be. You hoped the hitting would be good. It isn't, it's average. You hoped the pitching would be average. It isn't, it's bad. They might be playing ok overall, but they are still disappointing what were probably slightly lofty expectations. Expectations that were only bouyed by HOW they got the 3 wins. Opening Night was an emotional roller coaster, followed by a blowout, then an pitching duel. The Nats seemed able to win any type of game. You looked toward a sweep in Philly and 6 games against winnable teams with an eye toward 8-2.

Then they go and lose 7 straight.

Despite the plate approach issues with some of the Nats (Guzman, Milledge, Zimmerman), I think the offense is in just a minor slump. I checked the team BABIP and it stands at .259. That's .025 or .03 lower than expected. That should improve, and with it the offense will score more runs. Not too many more (the Nats had a couple of error-helped games in there) but more. Zimmerman especially has a BABIP of .184! He's ready for a hot streak. (unless of course he just has a knack for putting the ball weakly into play). On the flip-side, no one is getting lucky like Zimm is getting unlucky. Nick and Milledge may go down in average but probably not that much, and Nick can hurt you in 4 different ways. (Balls #1-#4). No, I like the offense to shake things up as expected.

Now can that overcome the pitching?

BRANDON

What scares me is this: the pitching is probably, as we speak, the best it's going to be all season. Guys are relatively fresh and injury free (save Shawn Hill and Chad Cordero) and no one is to the point yet where we could be concerned about being overworked. The starters are keeping the pressure off the bullpen by lasting into the 5th or 6th inning, even as they are coughing up runs a few at a time.

So what is going to happen down the stretch when the inevitable injuries strike? It's only going to get worse. I don't think Shawn Hill's return helps the team much (he seems to me to be headed out of baseball on the John Patterson Injury Express) and Cordero was anything but lights out last year.

Add the less-cavernous dimensions of Nats park (as compared with RFK) and it could get pretty grim. I just don't see the offense compensating for this. The team still lacks a true power hitter and isn't much of a stolen base threat, so the runs are going to come in dribs and drabs.

This still feels a lot like last year's team to me.

BASIL

I think with a team like the Nats, we treat the pitching depth like waves. (I forget if Needham copied the metaphor from me, or I from him, or Harper from either of us, or if we all got confused and Stan Kasten stuck the waves in the brisket.)

Anyway, we have some crappy vets, some unestablished guys, some injury risks . . . we'll have 60-80-100% turnover in the rotation at some point. The "exciting" part is that our next wave will not consist of the Simontacchis or Bowies or Bacsiks of the world. Okay, clear out a lesser light like O'Connor, who admittedly isn't really a prospect, and we've got Ballester, Clippard, Mock -- guys who are actually somewhat interesting, one or two of whom conceivably could contribute down the road. That does constitute improvement. Maybe not immediate improvement, but it is a better position to be in.

The next step is to build an actual damn rotation!

As for the offensive points: Zimmerman seems a slow starter. He was slow in April '06 (despite a good number of RBI), he was slow in April '07, and he's been a slow starter this April (despite a couple of well-timed homers!). I think Kearns will hit; he's no star, but he'll be solid over the course of the season. I'm not a big Wily Mo fan, but things will change to some degree when he returns. I don't buy the "run per game better" line about his presence any more than I bought the "Nook saved a run per game" (or whatever it was) line about Nookster's defense at the end of '06, but the Pena's presence in the lineup is a bit more formidable than Felipe's in left field. (Which is a whole 'nother topic!)

HARPER

You're both right! The pitching is the best it's going to be this year AND it's only going to get more interesting, (and I believe you got his chocolate in your peanut but...nah, it'll never work).

The first interesting thing is only days away as Hill is coming back and Chico is going down in his...uh oh Chico just pitched a gem. (Update: Nats lose! Nats lose! 3-0. May they never face Tim Hudson again) Here's a question for you. Who goes down? It can't be Chico now can it? It's got to be Bergmann right? Or better yet can they move him to the pen and DL Rauch?

BRANDON

Yes, Chico pitched very well last night, and Hudson pitched even better. Kind of goes back to what I was saying about bad luck...on most nights a pitcher going 8 innings and only giving up one run is good enough to get you the win...except when your offense only has three hits.

If I'm Manny Acta I send down Jesus Flores. Johnny Estrada is back from the DL and there is no good reason to have three catchers on the active roster except for pinch-hitting purposes. Flores looked absolutely horrible at the plate yesterday, swinging at everything. Zimmerman was taking some terrible hacks, and now he's 0 for his last 16 or so, ending the game flailing away on a pitch low and outside. Hudson is good, but the Nats seemed generally reluctant to swing the bat confidently at the 60+ strikes he threw over the course of 90+ pitches.

Ugh.

BASIL

Along those lines, Don Sutton said something last night during the brief window I was actually watching: It's not that the Nats have the "wrong guys," it's that they've had an unlucky run of guys coming up for "wrong at-bats." Part of that seems to me to be a B.S. dump; he's sort of soft-pedaling that there some guys really scuffling so far. But part of it seems to ring true, at least anecdotally. They need a fly ball, and they have a guy up with groundball tendencies. They need contact, and they have a free swinger. They need extra-base power, and they have a slap-hitter. I think there is something to the impression that luck is conspiring to ensure a hitter in a big moment is ill-suited to the specific situation. Or at least it seems that way.

But yeah . . . against Hudson. He'll eat 'em up, drink their milkshake, and all that.

HARPER

As I sit here watching Gavin Floyd go for a no-hitter (point mlb.tv!) ...

Flores is the obvious choice, and I understand why it has to be done contractually, but I can't be behind that. Paul LoDuca brings nothing to the team and should be the one that's gone. I'll stand by this comment all year. The fact that Flores looked awful against Tim Hudson, well why was he playing against Tim Hudson anyway? Start the rookie right-handed catcher vs one of the best righties in the league? This season should have been Flores facing all lefties and the occasional righty, and Estrada up against the tough righties, for example Tim Hudson. This kind of felt like a set-up.

Man, Lannan can't pitch in the rain can he...Smoltz is pitching...can they come back?



Answer to my own question... no they can't.

The hammer has begun to come down. Wily Mo is back, as is Cordero, while Bergmann and Flores get the boot. Of course I'm unhappy with the Flores move, but whatever. We knew that was coming. Bergmann though...it's too soon. I don't see the point of cutting a starter when bringing back a reliever. If Hill were on his way back then sure, but for Cordero? Of course that is the Nats' way; cut early, move fast, find the hot hand. Works well when dealing with late 20-year old / early 30-year old guys that are what they are, but they can't keep this philosophy going for developing pitchers.

BASIL

I wonder about the organization's support of Bergmann or its view of him as a developing pitcher. Bowden was again critical of Bergmann during the radio pregame, saying he fell apart completely against Florida and then pitched like crap in a no-pressure situation against the Braves. Bergmann has sort of a reputation as a thoughtful guy, but I wonder if the front office views him differently.

As for the Wily Mo thing, I don't want to overstate this, but his return makes the team whole --- or at least a little more whole than it was with FLop/Harris in left.

HARPER

I don't like this organizations treatment of players, although really it might just be Jimbo's treatment of players. It seems so amateur for the GM (who, by they way, shouldn't be speaking out in the papers anyway) talking bad about the players that HE put on this team. But he's done this before and I'm sure he'll do it again. Don't you sometimes wonder what a Katsen + Non-egomaniacal GM could do with the Nats? God, I hate that self-serving attention whore.

It's nice to have Wily Mo back because the Nats lost their LF AND their back-up to the LF (Dukes), both players coming into the year fans were excited to see. Willie Harris? Even Mama Harris wasn't getting up for that. "Come see Milledge, Dukes, & Pena!" became "Come see Milledge...and pay no attention to those other two guys that are sometimes out there in left!". Having Harris, who probably would have under a dozen starts in the OF given perfect circumstances, and Lopez, who would have zero, out there, it was like the Nats had Bizarro LF.

Speaking of overstating things... let's get to the last big story of the opening weeks, the attendance. This weekend the numbers were respectable I guess. 28,051, 32,532, 29,151. Just under a 30K average. The weather wasn't great but that still seems low for the first weekend series in the new park versus a division rival of some import (re: not Florida). Is this a real problem or are we making too much of this, the worst problem to every hit a major league team in the long history of organized baseball?

BRANDON

I'm glad we're getting around to the attendance thing; it's something I've been thinking about a lot over the past week. It sort of makes me nervous. Seems like I've heard tales of other new ballparks selling out pretty consistently right after their openers. Camden Yards, of course, was sold out for ages after it first opened. However, here are my thoughts as to why attendance at Nats park is still less:

1. The team is still catching up from having virtually no marketing or TV coverage until the 2007 season, and then sort of bad marketing thereafter. Remember all the ads last year that essentially said: "this team is going to suck, but hey! new park next year!" My impression is that people in the greater DC area are still getting warmed up to the team. Exurbanites are probably spooked by all the press about the lack of parking and even closer-in people are unfamiliar with the neighborhood that the stadium is in.

2. Competing sports events. I got on the Metro to go to yesterday's game and the train was about 50-50 packed with Caps and Nats fans. There is a non-trivial sum of people who would rather go see a playoff team (Caps) than a team that started the season 4-8 (Nats). Once the Caps' season ends, a portion of those people will head to Nats games.

3. School is still in session. That virtually eliminates the attendance of families at weeknight games.

4. The weather has been up and down. Most of the games at Nats park have been downright freezing. Warmer weather will put people in the mood for baseball.

5. Last, but not least- new-stadium saturation. Nats park is one of the last of this current generation of "new" ballparks that more or less began with Camden Yards in the early '90s. Camden was groundbreaking at the time, completely shattering the mold of the astroturf concrete bowl that was so prevalent at the time. New ballparks have opened virtually every year since to the point where all the gee-whiz, cool amenities at Nats park are the norm, and fans expect them. Washington fans have been attending sporting events at new parks for the past 10 years at FedEx and Verizon Center and Camden...Nats park brings the baseball experience up to par with that of the other sports in town, but it's not completely earth-shattering.

Still, one huge difference that I've noticed right away is the greatly diminished presence and influence of out-of-town fans. When the Braves came to RFK you could easily see and hear large contingents of Braves fans cheering like mad. At Nats park the crowd is overwhelmingly made up of spirited Nats fans, and the Braves fans are sort of sprinkled here and there. We'll see if this continues to be the case when the Phillies, Mets and Cubs come to town (or the Red Sox in 2009) but for now it's nice that the place truly feels like a home park.

HARPER

All are good points but only a couple matter in trying to reason why DC is different. . Numbers 3 and 4 are something that all new parks (save the July-opening Safeco) have to face. Number 2 is also going to have an effect on some of the new parks... Detroit, Dallas, anywhere with a decent hockey or basketball team. So it comes down to points #1 and #5.

Number 5 is an interesting case. I can see the reasoning behind it - while the park is an event for baseball fans in the district, for casual fans it's no longer a must-see draw. They've been to Camden and Citizens Bank and maybe one or two others. The newest IMAX theatre is still just another IMAX theatre, even if it's closer to your house. However...and this is the kicker for me. I hadn't heard this phrase used en masse until this year. That to me doesn't scream "reasoning" it's screams "excuse". Camden was over 15 years ago. There were about a dozen new parks up by 2002. If Phillies fans and Padres fans and Cards fans weren't tired of new parks, why are Nats fans?

So for me it comes down a lot to #1. The Nats shot themselves in the foot by not marketing the team well last year. They wanted to hide a crappy team from public embarrasment and instead hid what amounted to a minor feel good story, losing some good will and putting the Nats at a point of fan interest well below where a team in it's 4th year in town should be.

But in reality it's everything. Crappy team and slow to come around fanbase are number 1 and number 2 on the list, but everything else you mention Brandon matters. This is the perfect storm of fan attendance problems, if you assume that people actually do care (unlike in Miami or TB)

BASIL

It's a good list that Brandon's put together. I can see how the Caps' run is a matter of some inconvenient timing for the Nats. And I agree that, among the factors on the list, the first and the last are the biggest.

Ultimately, though, the majority of it comes down to winning. It's what both drives and rebuts these factors. If you win, then fans will come. This isn't a winning team or even one that has built up an expectation of being one (see #1), and this isn't 1992, when an amazing new ballpark was a wondrous thing (see #5). Furthermore -- and I think this is important -- by being without a ballclub of its own for more than three decades, the ability to set up the old ballpark/"field of dreams" dichotomy was never there. You can't say there was an "historic final season at RFK," and you can't really say (outside of the diehards) that the opening of Nationals Park was a community-wide eagerly awaited event. The way I see it is that it was the product of a business deal, and not much more.

With all that in mind, is attendance really that horrible? It may be poor so far, but in any event, as Kasten said, they'll get the attendance they deserve.

BRANDON

All good points and I just thought of one more: the area around the ballpark is currently devoid of all other attractions. As it stands right now, the stadium is the only draw to the area- the rest of the surrounding parcels are all under construction, meaning there is no reason for casual people to want to spend time in the area other than to hit the baseball game- which is great if you like baseball, but there is no Verizon Center-esque area to really draw people down there. Of course, that will change in a few years' time, maybe even by next season...it's important to keep in mind that the whole Nats park experience, as we'll come to know it 10 years from now, is still somewhat incomplete.

BASIL

Absolutely. That shouldn't go unnoted. It was very important for all involved to get the ballpark open to start this season, but the effect is that the Nats sort of beat (almost) everyone else there. Gotta live with that, for as long as it's a factor.

Roundtable #5 - The Season Begins

HARPER

Forget what the calendar tells you - Spring is over! The Nats are heading home, first to open the stadium with an exhibition match against the O's, then to open the "North American" season with the real thing against the Braves. (Ed-NOTE: The conversations took place from Friday to Sunday. As you know the Nats took both these games) It's an exciting time for the Nats and they really need to be putting their best foot forward.

Joining me in discussing the Nats this week are two-thirds of the girls from We've Got Heart. Kristen and Stephanie.

The general consensus is that this, or something close, will be the opening day lineup :

C. Guzman SS
Milledge CF
Zimmerman 3B
Johnson 1B
Kearns RF
Dukes LF
Belliard 2B
Lo Duca C
Perez P

With the exception of Wily Mo's injury time, any problems with that? Without delving into personal biases (yet), I only have one issue and that's with the guy on the mound. The Nats are re-introducing themselves to DC and America with Odalis Perez? He doesn't represent the Nats' future or the Nats' past, and he probably isn't even the team's best pitcher. It's "veteran respect" gone a bit too far.

STEPHANIE

I am pretty excited to see what the 2008 lineup can produce. I think we are entering the season with a lot of potential. Just think about it, last year at this time the Nats were expected to lose 100 games. Now with the lineup, the bench, and the solid bullpen this season, the Nats aren't a team to brush aside anymore.

I was pretty disappointed to hear about Wily Mo and his time-table for recovery. We saw him hit some monster blasts during Spring Training, and he looked poised to have a great season start. I am excited to see him back and playing everyday. With that said, I think we have a solid back up with Elijah Dukes, at least player wise. He will hopefully provide more offense than say Langerhans, so I don't think all is lost in left field.

I tend to agree on Perez pitching for the opener. For a team that makes such a huge deal about "the plan", Odalis just doesn't fit. I think the Nationals would make a much bigger statement by giving one of the young guys like Bergmann or Chico, heck even Redding after the season he had last year, the start. On this team full of young talent Perez does seem like the odd man out. I'm still not sold on the need for a veteran on the rotation. After John Lannan's Spring, it would have been nice to see him in DC on opening day.

KRISTEN

You have to be excited about what Milledge and Dukes add to the lineup. I'd say Lo Duca is an offensive improvement over Schneider, but I'm not thrilled about him being part of our organization. Feels like we're all just holding our breath waiting for Flores. It certainly seems like we are heading in the right direction though. No more watching Fick and Langerhans pinch strike-out.

I guess I do see the value in having a veteran pitcher around -- but we've got some veteran guys in the bullpen that will continue to help shape pitchers and Randy St. Claire's influence can't be understated. I'm not sure I saw enough of Perez in spring training to make any predictions, but I'm certainly not convinced he's deserving of this big opening night start. I think as a simple match-up, it would have been nice to see Bergmann get the start -- with the way he handles the Braves' lineup. I'm expecting a good solid year from Redding and while I like Chico and hope for the best, I think Lannan really did deserve that spot.

HARPER

Dukes can't be worse than Langerhans. I refuse to believe something like that is possible. LoDuca isn't great, but he isn't worse than Schneider at the plate. Anyone would be better than Logan, let alone a true prospect like Milledge. Fick is gone. Bacsik isn't wasting throws anymore. There is no place I can see a decline in talent. That's why the same the back of the head thoughts have gone from "Hope the Nats aren't historically bad." to "Hope the Nats get close to .500!" The Nats at the major league level didn't change as much as people may think but they never stepped back. Now that says something about where they started from but I think we all agree they should be better.

As far as Odalis is concerned I like having him in the rotation - the Nats have abused their bullpen the past 2 years. 2nd in the majors in IP last year, 3rd the year before, they need someone to eat innings or we're going to see a mass of arm injuries. While you can't expect Odalis to do it well, you can expect him to do it. But that's my complaint - he's an innings eater - not an Opening Day starter, even for a team like the Nats. He represents nothing more than bottom of the barrel filler. (That may in fact still be in line with the Nats current philosophy but they don't have to shout about it). Chico would have been nice, but I'm a Chico fan. But you know who also would have been nice? Shawn Hill or John Patterson.

KRISTEN

It would definitely be nice to give the bullpen a breather this year -- especially because they aren't pitching at RFK anymore, which creates an added challenge. It's nice to know that they've all returned healthy. You can rest assured knowing you know what you're going to get out of them.

For Opening Night, Shawn Hill would have been the ideal. It's hard to watch him struggle with overcoming the injuries. I still have a lot of faith that he'll be able to put in lots of work this year. Unlike -- John Patterson. I realize it was a controversial decision, but I wasn't bent out of shape with his exit, just surprised. I have compassion for "my stuff just isn't back yet. I'm getting there." Instead, we walked into spring hearing about this excited, re-energized Patterson that was ready to go. Same as last spring. And then there was the flu debacle with the O's. There's been a lot of excuses with Patterson. I must confess, I missed his phenomenal 2005 season (cause I didn't live here yet). I do respect what he has done in the past and what he is capable of doing in the future.

Do you think if he remained on the roster right now, we'd really see him pitching throughout the season?

STEPHANIE

I am almost going to miss watching Fick swing away in those key moments. Langerhans not so much. I'm not a fan of Lo Duca, his abilities or his attitude. I'm not sure he understands that he's a place holder until Flores is ready - which in my opinion is sooner rather than later. I guess Lo Duca's bat has been better than Schneider's in the past, but with him coming off an injury, I'm really not expecting much. I am really excited to see Milledge in center field. I think we will see some magical stuff from him this year. I really like his enthusiasm. So I'm thinking we'll see nothing but improvements offensive wise this season.

Having Hill on the mound for opening day would have been a great way to kick of '08, his situation is unfortunate. When it comes to Hill, I feel like it's a roller coaster. When he's healthy he's the ace we need, but is he ever going to be able to pitch without pain? I'm hoping so. I'd love for Shawn to come back healthy and lead the rotation with wins.

I agree with Kristen, I'm happy to see Patterson go. I think the difference between Patterson and Hill is the response each give about their injuries. When Patterson was injured, or he pitched poorly, he was first to blame something else. There was the time he was sick, the time he got hit in the face with the ball, the time he didn't have enough time to rest, and so on. With Hill we get up front honest answers about his injuries and performances. I don't think Patterson would have made it a full season without a DL stint. I'm still hopeful that Hill will come back strong and have a great season.

HARPER

Oh come on...Hill was more honest? Please. Patterson is a disappointment to a lot of Nats fans - they saw 2005, expected a stud pitcher and got an injured pitcher that actually projected other excuses when pitching through pain because he can't admit when he's not ready to go. Hill never got a chance to disappoint because fans never expected anything from him. While it may not accurately describe how you guys feel I'll stick to my guns and say that's where the majority of JP hate comes from.

Do I think he would have been pitching this year? Yes - but not effectively for the first month or two. John on the mound for Opening Day would have said something. It would have said "Here's someone that has been through the whole thing - from Montreal to DC, from RFK to the new park..." It would have been a nice moment. Whatever. Sometimes it's better for everyone involved if things move on.

I would have loved to see Hill on the mound opening day, also because what that would say. "Here's someone that's going to be the ace for the next few years" Instead he's injured again. Do you realize that Hill hasn't broken 100 IP since 2003? I just can't be optimistic about someone with that type of history.

We all seem to have the same tepid-at-best feelings about LoDuca, positive vibes from Milledge, what do you think about the way the MI ended up? Looks like Lopez is the loser here.

KRISTEN

Fair enough. I know my absence in 2005 definitely colors my perspective on Patterson. I'm hopeful with Hill because I just really want to see what he's capable of - but your points are well-taken.

I look at Felipe and I see a former All-Star and I just can't figure it out. We've heard about the vague off-the-field problems and we've heard about his tough childhood, so you can see how the game is especially mental for him. You just want to see him snap out of it. Tremendous talent and potential, but these issues cloud his focus. I think he will turn it around. I just don't know when. He really needed to put up stronger numbers this spring.

With that said, I think the criticism is fair but way overblown. I want the two best guys to start at their spots -- and that would be Belliard and Guzman at this time. I just want Lopez to prove to his critics that his issues were personal, and not a question of attitude. Why would we want him to be satisfied and comfortable on the bench? He should want to fight for that position. I think media, bloggers and fans read too much into those comments.

STEPHANIE

Granted I also missed Patterson's 2005 season, but to my knowledge he had issues staying healthy before he came to DC. I guess I just got tired of hearing excuses and not seeing results. Ok maybe Hill isn't more honest, but isn't there just something about his sinker ball that makes you pull for the guy?

I'm with Kristen on the Lopez issue. I just can't understand how a slump can last so long. It's clear Felipe wants to play and I really think he has what it takes. I think the game means a lot to Felipe. His lack of performance is often criticized as laziness, and I'm not sure thats the case. I hope he gets the chance to turn things around.

I really liked how Guzman and Lopez worked last year, there were times they seemed seamless. It worked. I was impressed by Guzman's beginning last season, and if he had stayed healthy he would have had a great year. That's just the thing though, I'm wondering if he will stay injury free this season. He had an impressive Spring and it would be nice to see Bowden's investment pay off.

With Belliard, there is no denying he's a great player, but I think he's a bit like Odalis Perez in that he just doesn't fit with the plan. I do enjoy watching him play, and the flexibility he shows in his position is great. However for some reason, he is one player on the team that I'm indifferent towards. Its more personality wise, like attitude or something.

HARPER

Belliard doesn't fit with the plan, but it's hard for me to see how Guzman does either. Guzman is 30 with only a quarter-season of decent baseball in like 8 years in his favor. Most of those offensive seasons were REALLY bad and that's not looking at 2005 (which I'll admit was an aberration). Of course he had that good quarter year last year, which makes it tougher to dismiss, but I think we'll see another middling season for him then out the door.

Felipe at least has a chance to be part of the future - but it's dwindling everyday. Since the other guys are really just stop gaps, why not let him play? Especially if confidence is an issue. I'd sit Guzman, but Belliard would be fine too. I'm not sure I get why in this instance the Nats are playing to win for now.

KRISTEN

Have to say- I'm responding from Section 226! (ED Note : Kristen was replying from the Nats Orioles game)

I really have mixed feelings about Guzman given his history here. But his performance last season and this spring would merit another chance to see what we can get out of him.

Wouldn't it be nice to have a Reyes or a Hanley Ramirez? A young lead-off guy that can fly around the bases and put up great numbers? On that note, do we know the status of Esmailyn Gonzalez.? I don't know too much about him, but isn't that the kind of player they hope he becomes?

For now, I just hope All Star Felipe shows up in a week or two.

HARPER

I think everyone does. Here's the issue: the Nats don't have a Reyes or Ramirez in the minors or even a Marco Scutaro or John McDonald. Unless something changes soon they are going to need to think hard about who's going to man 2nd and SS in 2009 and 2010. It would be great if that person was Felipe and that can't be decided with him on the bench.

Section 226? That's slightly closer than North Carolina right?

Ok so the new park is open and early word is it's great. Here's a question - will that matter? Does the new ballpark have a chance to reinvigorate baseball interest in DC? I hate to be fatalistic (ok
that's I lie, I like to be fatalistic) but let's face it. Interest the past 2 years was lagging behind where the team would like it to be. Is this combination of new park and legit young talent going to draw those 30K crowds, or does the team have to win?

(This is an honest question from someone not in or from DC)

STEPHANIE

The new park is really fantastic. We were in it for the first time yesterday, and everything was magical. I definitely think the new park will help reinvigorate baseball in DC. A lot of fans dealt with the...old charm, shall we say, of RFK and stuck with the team during those early months last season when the team struggled to reach 10 wins. The new park is as much a reward for the players as it is for the fans. Winning would be nice. The new park will hopefully not only draw more fans, but it will also give the guys some more incentive to win. I think the excitement of the new park will give them some more pep. Yesterday it was pretty obvious they all had an extra spring in their step. So I do think the wins will come this season, but I think the park will be a big draw for the team regardless of the win/loss record. DC is building something great, and its a pretty cool time to be a Nats fan. Kinda cheesy I know, but it really is exciting here.

KRISTEN

There is no question that the park is beautiful and I think regardless of wins the honeymoon will last at least through mid-summer. Eventually, the stadium won't be enough. I hope though fans see that we are going in the right direction. You go to amazing parks like PNC Park and Camden Yards and it's sad. But with those teams, I think it's not just the win loss record. It's total lack of faith in the direction the team is heading, or maybe the desire to head in any direction rather than just getting by each year.

Everyone jokes about the plan - partly cause it asks a lot of fans. But at least there is a direction and not band aid solutions. We are in the process of building a good organization. Come watch it in progress. Don't expect to take the NL East this season.

HARPER

So not World Series? I'll have to cancel my late October hotel reservations, then...

If not a 120 win season, what do you guys think is in store for the Nats in 2008? I've said my piece on my blog. 73-89. Same record as last year. I think this years team is slightly more talented than last years, like 5 games or so. (and ever moving in the right direction) That being said, last year the Nats got a little lucky. In response, I guessed they'd be a little unlucky this year, hence the same record.

Either of you on the .500 bandwagon?

KRISTEN

I think this team is definitely more talented than last year, but it's always a tough division. The Mets, the Phillies and the Braves are all strong teams. I'd give the Nats a few more games than last year. I don't know if it was luck or Manny, but it was a pleasant surprise. I think, as Zimmerman said last night (ED - after the Opening Night win), they are sick of losing. They are going to do everything they can to get off to a good start. It was impossible to recover from last year's 9-25 deficit. I think with the new park, playing .500 ball is possible. So much depends on injuries. My prediction would be slightly less than .500 - something like 77 or 78 wins.

STEPHANIE

I'll jump on the .500 bandwagon. When we talked to some of the guys during spring training, their expectations were high for this season. I think the momentum of the new park can carry them pretty far. I was impressed with the line up last night, I hope the offense continues. Zimmerman's performance last night I think made it clear, don't count the Nats out just yet. I'm hopeful that the team won't be hit hard with bad luck and continue to play well from the start.

Thanks to Kristen and Stephanie for doing this!

Rountdable #4 - Part 3 : Everything Else

HARPER

Trying to keep the segues moving (not to be confused with trying to keep the segways moving, which is apparently Jimbo's job) I think you put as much thought into Old Dirty Perez as you needed to Basil. He might fill in the back of the rotation, but more likely he's Simontacchi-esque insurance. Patterson, Hill, Chico should be #1-#3 (I'm still with you Johnny!) but who gets the last two slots? Personally I like Redding's at #4, and Lannan in the 5 hole. Redding has been an effective major leaguer when healthy and Lannan is only 23, not like the ancient 27 yr old Jay Bergmann.

CHRIS

I don't think you can really look at a starting rotation like that. As we've seen each of the last few years, what you start out with is never what you end with. All those guys you mention are going to get time this year. It's just a matter of when.

Because of that, some of the players like Lannan are going to have a tough time. Redding's contract means he's a virtual lock to start with the team. Perez' probably has a release trigger if he doesn't make the club (like Colome's did last season), so if he doesn't fall on his face, he's got an inside edge. You start penciling those names in, and there's not nearly as much room for Lannan and Chico and Bergmann. The first two have options. (does Bergmann?) They can be sent to the minors and replenish the team later once Hill and Patterson break.

BASIL

Lannan, Cy Young winner. Chico, Hall of Famer. Mock, greatest pitcher of all time. Detwiler, most excellent sentient in the universe.

Sorry, I was just reading Pravda . . .

Anyway, both of you make good points. Perez isn't really worth much of a mention, and the rotation depth (such as it is) needs to be managed in an orderly and effective manner. At the least, our veteran flotsam is a little better this year, and, unlike last year with the Hanrahans of the world, this year's presumed white knights come from our own organization more or less.

CHRIS

Overall, the pitching staff has a decent chance to be better than last year. Not a lot better. But a bit better. If they manage to allow the same number of runs as last year, that's an improvement. We had 45 starts from pitchers with ERAs over 6. 21 were from stiffs with ERAs over 7.

By 'upgrading' to merely bad, they can knock a few runs of their total.

HARPER

It's odd. When I think of last season I think the Nats got pretty lucky; Hill really pitching very well, Redding coming back into form, Bergmann's first half success, that Levale vs Santana game. But looking back for every success there was a complete failure, Simontacchi, SouthEast Jerome, all those other Levale games. With a few very minor breaks they will have a better rotation - but as you say it may not show with the move to the smaller park.

What concerns me is not who's going to bounce around the back of the rotation (at least until end of the season call-ups) but what happens if the relief breaks down. Look at the team's relief ERAs over the past 5 years: 4.40, 4.00, 3.55, 4.49, 3.81. I bring this up not to show a cyclical pattern to the ERAs but to show there is a big element of randomness here and last year the Nats got nice and lucky. Are the Nats going to have 6 different relievers have ERAs under 4.00 and pitch 40+ innings in 2008? Is Jon Rauch going to get through the season without his arm falling off? I'm sure they'll find some decent pitchers here - they seemed to excel at that - but I think it's going to be a bit rougher this year.

Of course I'd trade a slight increase in starter quality for a slight drop in reliever quality anyday...

CHRIS

I'd agree with that. The sheer workload of the relievers last year is something to be concerned about going forward, but... They're also relatively deep there. They've got too many acceptable arms battling for spots as it is. Someone like Schroder -- who could be a pretty good setup guy for half the teams in the league -- has to get lucky to make the roster out of spring.

BASIL

Trade Rauch!

Just kidding. Well, maybe.

One thing I think the fanbase might be missing is that reliever performance tends to be pretty volatile; we're not talking about really big samples, and the ones who are worked particularly hard often become injury risks. So I think there's this expectation that Rauch, for instance (and in particular), will be a major player on the first big-time Nats contender, whenever that is. Maybe he will be, but I'd say the odds are more likely he won't.

Which isn't to say the Nats won't have good relief pitching by then. They probably will. Many of the good relievers will just come by surprise when we get to that point. As, come to think of it, Rauch and Saul Rivera and Hector Carrasco and Gary Majewski and others were.

HARPER

I think this gets back to a point I've been trying to make in the offseason. The franchise is really moving in the right direction. Compared to this time last year, the minors are obviously better, the hitting is likely to be better, the pitching has a chance to be better, and the team...well it might win fewer games. The improvement is probably going to be minimal in 2008 and a few bad breaks and the Nats could be a 70 win team. I hope the support doesn't suffer if this happens.

CHRIS

Oh, there's definitely reason for optimism. They ARE on the right track, even if I haven't agreed with every intermediary step -- and even if Ted Lerner's accountants did.

But for support to suffer, doesn't there have to be much support in the first place? We've got the diehards, of course. But schmucks like us don't carry a franchise. I'd go into a rant about the Post here, but I'll save that for another time!

HARPER

Support is just a euphamism for attendance, which, no there isn't much in the first place. It's going to go up, sure, but suffering can still happen. You and I (and some others, I hope) think the team is a bit too...uh...frugal now. Imagine how it'll be if they go into a new stadium and don't get the bump they want? A good season + new stadium would help the team not see that, but like I said I'm not enthused about this season having more wins. More interest, more hope? Definitely. But not more wins and I think wins -> casual fan interest -> increase attendance -> $$ -> ??? -> Playoffs.

I'd hate to see the improvement momentum squashed just because the Nats don't catch a few breaks in '08 (and yes, I realize this is a total pessimist argument)

BASIL

Oh, you're just a couple of Plan-Pissers!

Chris has put pen to paper on the runs scored vs. runs allowed thing so much that South America is bereft of trees and the White Bros. are swimming in Olympic-sized swimming pools filled with Texas tea sweetener. And this team checks out pretty decently. A modest improvement over last year, with a fine shot at break-even or so for the home slate, and maybe some progressive improvement as the season wears on. It's not sexy, but it's got teeth.

HARPER

"It's not sexy, but it's got teeth" makes a good slogan for the Nats 2008 season, don't it? (or a low-rent online dating service)

Any thoughts on Nick and Dmitri?

BASIL

My thoughts on Nick and Dmitri are pretty simple:

(1) If Nick's healthy, he's the starter; better defense, OBP and all that stuff.

(2) If Dmitri is such a great team player -- which, by the way, is what he's held up as -- then he accepts a role player assignment, with full knowledge that the organization fished him out of the reject pile and then increased his bank account by $10M in gratitude for his services.

(3) The stuff about clearing a path for Marrero is all speculative until Marrero emerges from the high minors as a stud hitting prospect, which we all hope he will be.

CHRIS

What he said.

I really don't understand the drumbeat to trade either of them.

It's not like that $5 million on the bench would go somewhere else other than Uncle Teddy's pocket. And it's not like the Lerner children are going to be eating watered-down gruel while Dmitri dines on an 8-pound steak.

There's playing time for both. There's money for both. I don't see where the problem is.

BASIL

Football mentality. Quarterback controversy, you can't lose your job due to injury, etc.

Manny's a smart guy. He can make it work. And it can work if the players agree to make it work.

HARPER

Nature abhors a vacuum, and people in sports abhor a platoon. Players feel it dulls them down, fans immediately jump the minute one has a slump or a streak calling for an end to it. It's like no one wants managers to manage.

Yeah, Nick should start. It's a no-brainer from all directions but one, who the fans love more, and that shouldn't be how the team makes decisions anyway.

So after all this the sentiment I'm feeling is whatever we get on Opening Day really doesn't matter, at least this year. There isn't anyone with the potential of being "robbed" of a spot nor anyone unfairly kept in their role by veteran momentum. It's not like starting Guzman is holding down Milledge or anything. With the team in transition, good players will find playing time and bad ones will be shuttled off. And if that doesn't happen we'll complain about it mdiseason.

All true, but it hardly as fun as making Spring and the Opening Day roster overly important.

CHRIS

So you're suggesting that Nihilism is the best approach to being a Nats fan?

Works for me!



THANKS TO CHRIS AND BASIL FOR PLAYING ALONG.

Rountdable #4 - Part 2 : Middle Infield

HARPER

You bring up the Boone Boys but that's just the undercard for the main event Triple Threat match; Belliard, Lopez, and Guzman. Three enter - 2 leave. My money is on Belliard and Guzman (who God as my witness won't reach .700 for his OPS this year.)

BASIL

I'm not so sure it's a three-man cage match, at least for now. Guzman seems safe: he's got the contract thing, the contract year thing, the (finally) healthy thing, and the (fluky) batting average thing. That's a lot of things!

Ultimately, I think Lopez has a little bit of an inside track on the starting job at second. Belliard has signed as a utility guy, agreed to an extension at least in part as a utility guy, and is paid like a utility guy. And, when it comes down to it, Manny's a very smart guy and he knows Cristian Guzman cannot be anyone's best option to lead off. Lopez might be.

CHRIS

If he's that smart, then he'll realize that Guzman isn't an answer at short either. If I had to bet, I'd say that Belliard and Lopez will have the most PA of the trio by the end of the season. Those two certainly give the team the best chance to win.

BASIL

Maybe so. But Manny's also street smart -- or so it seems -- and the line on the street is that Guzman finally has a chance to reclaim value on the deal. (Disregard for a moment that the deal was a loser for all time by August of 2005, if not earlier.) So, until Guzman disabuses the notion, I'm thinking he's given some pretty wide latitude (or longitude?).

One other factor -- maybe not the most important but it's out there -- is that Guzman is tied in at one position. Flop and Belliard, at least theoretically, can contribute at both short and second. That makes them more natural bench options.

However, your outlook on such things seems correct to me when you apportion plate appearances as you do. A lineup isn't carved on tablets, a season is long, and there's plenty of time to administer SS/2B PT in a reasonable manner, given the constraints of the roster.

HARPER

Yes, but everyone, the manager, the players, the fans, want a general sense of stability. Musical positions maybe the reality but certainly not the ideal. The starting nine on Opening Day will be taken as the hopeful starting nine for the Nats for 2008. And the 2008 Nats are still looking at promoting these guys for deadline deals. That leans toward a Guzman / Belliard starting duo. If they do well...Lopez may never see those ABs.

I guess is makes sense not to start Belliard if you think Lopez is the future, but do you? I don't.

CHRIS

I like Lopez' future a hell of a lot more than I like Belliard's, given the latter's age and cup size. (Up top, not down low)

Stability is great, but that shouldn't be the goal in and off itself. Look at the Harper's favorite team, the Yankees. Til Matsui, it was a roving hoard of left-fielders, and they managed ok. They seem to have had more success with instability, even!

The overall point behind what you're saying is right. The team doesn't have any upper-level infielders ready to go. There is no MI of the future. So maybe that's why it's important to see what Lopez can give you, since he's the youngest of the trio, and might need to fill the gap til someone like Ian Desmond can show up and disappoint in three years.

BASIL

I guess with Lopez it ultimately comes down to whether anyone can believe in him going forward anymore. If so, then I suppose he's worth the most playing time among the middle infielders (and certainly in a Lopez vs. Belliard head-on comparison). If not, well . . . he might as well have been non-tendered or dumped for a few pennies on the dollar. It's nice to win an arbitration hearing, but $4.9M is $4.9M, and there exists the (presumed) possibility that he could prove a distraction.

Not that Stan believes in team chemistry . . .

CHRIS

(Or spending money)

Yeah, it's a cheapshot. Deal!

BASIL

Or, in the case of almost any free agent out there, no deal.

(Whoops, forgot about OD Perez!)

HARPER

You must know that I wouldn't personally choose to start Guzman over
Lopez. I did compare him to the festering corpse of Honus Wagner and
all. Just trying to predict what is going to happen and this crystal
ball is seeing Belliard. Perhaps because Belliard is more
ball-shaped.

Roundtable #4 - Part 1 : Outfield

HARPER

Here we are finally. The beginning of the new season, full of more trite rebirth pieces than we'll read if Obama gets elected later this year. Baseball-wise it looks like everything is settled for the Nats so we can go on and discuss what people are really interested in: How sad was it to see Donkey Lips in that Amp commercial during the Super Bowl. Oh ok, I'll save that for the "Ugs and Kisses" Blog.

The Nationals are actually only set in a few places. Wide open in my mind are first base, middle infield, and the back of the rotation. Catcher may be an issue given LoDuca's injury status. Those OF slots are open in name (though I have trouble seeing Dukes, Escobar or some surprise guest moving into a starting role). There's always those last bench and bullpen slots. It should be an interesting spring. Should be. I'm hesitant only because this team does have a nasty habit of not making decisions, even for a season or three.

Let's start with what I think will be a fairly open and shut discussion. The OF will be Austin, Wily Mo, and Milledge, right? They aren't going to turn this into another "Everybody gets 2 weeks" situation like it's been forever, will they?

BASIL

I'd think so, or at least for now. The one issue I could see arising is a Wily Mo versus Elijah one. I've seen it said that WMP is not a bench type -- you have to play him every day for him to get in a groove and have the opportunity to blast a homer per week or so. I can see that reasoning. But I have a feeling he might find himself exposed in real, honest-to-goodness full-time play, and I have a feeling that Dukes is too good to be a fourth outfielder. Of course, there's also a chance WMP blossoms into a big-time power source and Dukes flops or . . . well, continues down a destructive path.

Other than that, I think what you have is typical fill-in time by the Machowiaks and Willie Harriseseseses of the world. Maybe Milledge gets off to a tough start, but Acta is apparently an admirer, so I doubt we're looking at 350+ at-bats from a bench type while Lastings is scouting out Columbus recording studios.

CHRIS

I think Basil makes some good points.

As distasteful as I find Dukes personally, the guy's got a world of baseball talent and by all rights could be starting on 3/4 of the teams in the league. The question, as we've seen, is whether his temperament will allow him to live up to that potential.

There are about 1,200 ABs to be divided amongst left and center. Give Milledge and Pena 400 at each and Dukes 200 per position, and the problem's solved. Certain managers are good about riding the 'hot hand' and maximizing the production. The problem Acta had last year is that his hot hand was more like a fist full of horse poop. I'm not sure there's any conceivable way of molding Langerhans, Logan and Casto into something acceptable.

BASIL

In some places a fist full of horse poop might be a delicacy, but in baseball terms we're talking about more like the Sally League. What the Nats had out in CF definitely wasn't major league-quality -- which was entirely foreseeable, since we're talking about several years of waiver wire and dump deal guys. That's why (assuming he is competent in CF) the Milledge deal is so important in this context: it breaks the cycle of assorted "flavors" in CF, which is just a kinder way of saying the management stopped tossing out substandard options and forcing the manager's hand to change as a result.

Not to get all "meta-" here, but it's kind of cool to witness transformative events like this for the franchise!

CHRIS

That's the impressive thing right there. Even Milledge as a 4th outfielder represents a substantial improvement over last year. This team wasted 150 LF ABs on Snelling, Casto, Langerhans, Fick, Restovich, and Watson. Of those, only Snelling had some sort of upside. And they wasted almost 450 combined ABs in CF on Logan and Langerhans.

That's 600 ABs that's going to be taken by competent major-league hitters with potential!

HARPER

We can all agree the Nats have better parts. When someone asks me where I think the OF will be in 2010 now I can say "In the majors" as opposed to "fighting for Indy league playing time" or "pouring cement foundations".

But just because the 3 little pigs finally are using bricks, doesn't mean they know how to build a house. I still will harbor my concerns about the proper distribution of playing time until I see one of these new guys allowed to ride out a 3-week long slump. For all the (completely fair) talk about how the Nats had nothing to work with the last few years they still were sitting out Ryan Church in favor of Nook Logan in early September last year. A bad April for Wily Mo and a good one for Justin Maxwell and I fear the cycle could start again.

The good news though, like you guys said, is that the talent is so much better that you have to think the right guy will have a hot stretch at the right time by chance if not by design.

One more quick OF point before we move on...Dukes on the major league squad; is this a given for the sake of being "mentored" or is there a real chance that he'll be in AAA because they want him to play everyday? (of course I ask because I've been thinking the latter...)

CHRIS

There's definitely a crunch for roster spots and Mackowiak and Harris are capable outfielders on guaranteed contracts, so sending Dukes down wouldn't be a complete shocker.

But isn't that the rationale for half of Dmitri's salary? Dukes doesn't exactly have a great reputation with the International League. It seems like the Nats are trying to get him to change the environment he's in to help make lifestyle changes, and throwing him back into the scene of so many of his crimes, while sensible on one level, is completely crazy on another.

BASIL

I agree with Chris. I imagine the Nats are planning to take an almost quasi-military approach with Dukes: "Here's Dmitri. He's your sergeant. Stick with your sergeant, watch what he does -- you'll live. Go off on your own and do something stupid -- you'll die." So to speak. That kind of arrangement, which the Nats have given every impression of intending, makes no sense if they don't execute it from the beginning of the regular season.

But that does leave a roster crunch. Doesn't it seem like this happens a lot? I don't know if it's a Bowden-specific thing, but on a yearly basis it seems like there's a line of double-parked players outside of the Panera Bread in Viera. I know we're on the outfield right now, but the infield thing filters to the outfield, because Machowiak and Harris and the Pete Orrs of the world are directly affected by all of it. It will be interesting to see how it plays out, but I'd imagine the front four of the outfield will break camp intact.

CHRIS

Don't forget the Nepotista on your list!

BASIL

Need I ask: Which one?!

Or has nepotista evolved into a plural usage now too?

CHRIS

Fair point!

That's where looking at the contract status makes sense. They've already given guaranteed deals to a bunch of these players -- more than they have roster spots for, really -- so there's no chance of a Bret(t) making it at the expense of an Aaron. (Unless George -- Brett, not Boone -- comes out of retirement)

HARPER

But if we keep both, we can say we've got a "Boones Farm"! Ha! ha?

Bowden can't help but tinker with players that have options, and I know Dukes must have options. Plus, Jimbo loves going with the AAA "hot hand". If Dukes starts up here and isn't immediately successful then the next slap hitting OF that is smacking singles all over Columbus will take his place. If he's going to OH eventually why not at season's start?

Roundtable #3 : More Steroid Talk, Pitching, Fan Fest and Nick v Dmitri

BASIL

Okay, lots to discuss these days (Mitchell Report, Hall of Fame, big free agent signings, divisional races for next year), all at most tangentially related to the Nationals. So I'll try to phrase a question less tangentially related to the Nats:

Let's say it's May 15 of this coming season, and the Commissioner's Office issues a press release stating [Insert Your Favorite Nat] has tested positive for a Performance Enhancing Drug and will be spending the next fifty games doing something other than playing for the Nats. What would be your reaction? How upset would you be? Would that player continue to be your favorite Nat upon his return from the suspension?

(I realize this question might hinge somewhat on who that favorite Nat is and how important he is to the team. My favorite Nat of all time is Henry Mateo, the former utility infielder who couldn't throw because of an arm injury but who put up a .500 OBP for the Nats in 2005 - though in like two plate appearances!)

JON

I'll hop on this first. Just as you have a strange affinity for Mateo, I too have an unconventional love for both Guz and Alex Escobar. So in the theoretical you described (If Escobar's injuries were all tied to injecting himself with cow steroids or whatever), I'd have to say he'd cease to be my favorite player on the Nats. I can say this with relative certainty, as Clemens was my favorite player before the Report came out, and I can't say the same anymore. This probably has more to do with the fact that my love of the Rocket hinged on his durability and work ethic. So...

If Escobar got suspended for 50 games, I'd give him a second chance upon return. If he messed up again, then he would be forever banned from the Sports Pantheon of my heart. With him though, the suspension could coincide with a freak injury and the suspension could serve as the DL.

MISS CHATTER

I so totally want to jump in on this since my favorite ex-Nat, Gary Bennett, was named in the Mitchell Report (go ahead, mock me, I'm used to it at this point!). After recovering from the initial shock, I've had to give this a lot of thought and soul-searching. Since I don't have a current favorite Nat (not sure if that says more about me or the team), this is my only real point of reference at the moment.

I'd love to naively believe my favorite players league-wide are clean, but unfortunately, that's probably not the case. I mean c'mon, even Nook Logan was named in the report! It does tinge my view of players with sadness and disappointment, and even a bit of feeling let down, like I've been lied to and fooled. I do forgive Bennett and Logan somewhat for allegedly being "one time users" who were presumably desperate to try anything to get over injuries (or at least Bennett was). I'm also glad Bennett came clean immediately after the report was released, which lends some decency to his case. I'd like to hear what Paul Lo Duca has to say for himself. Bueller? Bueller?

I guess part of it does depend on the player. For instance, if it came out Ryan Zimmerman was a regular steroid user... whew, that would be a huge blow. I don't think I'd get over that one when he returned from his suspension. He embodies youth and innocence in a talented athlete and that perception would be shattered. On the other hand, if certain other players were proven to be users and suspended, I likely wouldn't be terribly surprised. I think (hope?) that as players become younger with better drug education and enforcement policies in place at the lower levels, this issue will eventually not be so epidemic as the older players head off into the sunset. I hope.

Should allegations and suspicions color Hall of Fame voting? Not that anyone we've named so far will ever have a shot... Except Clemens.

JON

At least to me, this whole Mitchell Report is more a condemnation of us then of baseball players. We've all (or at least most) built this reality in our mind that this sport is unlike all things in life. We think that it's fair, balanced, and incorruptible, and that all of our teams operate on the behalf of the fans, and do what's best for the game and the fans at all turns. The Report just made it evident that Baseball is just like life. Money governs and guides the decisions, from the Front Office to the Commish's office. We asked for our players to do super human things in the name of our entertainment, and they did it. We shouldn't be surprised then that they turned to chemistry to make it happen.

What this report did for me was shatter my naivety about sports. I don't love them any less, but I have a good degree of skepticism that I didn't have before.

BASIL

That's an interesting point. What's the old saying: "If you ain't cheatin', you ain't tryin' "? Not to get into the subtleties of what exactly is cheating, but it would appear some people cheated, and then quite a few other people cheated. Condemning something while understanding the basis for getting into such behavior isn't in itself contradictory.

Anyway, to answer my own question somewhat briefly, . . . . well, I'm not sure who my favorite Nat is anymore. So let's just say it's Lo Duca. (I'm a big fan of the "my cell phone is TOAST!" line from the Mitchell Report.) My impression of him doesn't really change now that some of his behavior has been documented. I always perceived him as a hard-nosed player who wasn't exactly above doing anything and everything needed to exploit an edge in the game - the kind of thing that's perceived as admirable up and until the point where he does something deemed really WRONG. Well, he's done something really wrong, it would appear, and I'm not sure I care other than the potential discipline he faces. (And even then it might give Flores a better chance to develop; who knows?)

Incidentally, I have suspected PED use by other Nats I liked such as Wilkerson, Church, and Dmitri. Okay, not Dmitri. But who really knows, and without evidence supporting the suspicions, I guess it's best to let that bridge be crossed before we cross it . . . sorry for the John Maddenism there! (And Cathy, I can't believe I asked this question without once thinking of Passed Ball Bennett!)

Okay, next question: According to sources, the Nats are looking at some older, injuried-up vets to round out the last spot in the rotation. Good idea? If so, which vet(s) would you like to see sign with the team? Beyond that, is there even a coherent rotation at this point?

JON

I would have said Mark Prior a week ago, but that ship sailed. I would have said Matt Clement, but so did that one. To make Sutton happy, I'd give Jason Jennings a 1 yr deal. I'd really like Bartolo Colon, and get him on a diet and an incentive laden deal. That guy was an ACE not all that long ago.
All I do know is that rotation needs some help, and the catching lightning in a bottle thing works a lot better if you throw some injured formerly good players in than just guys who were always average.

BASIL

Yeah -- Prior gone, Clement gone. These guys are starting to sort themselves out. I agree about Colon for reasons the U.S.S. Mariner guys could state far better than me. He's a workhorse when healthy whose stats line, even in an awful season, doesn't seem to foreclose a comeback. It'd be a good gamble to see if we could turn him into something worthwhile in a trade later on (if only to reverse the Sizemore et al trade). If Colon's too costly, I think Jennings is an interesting way to go.

Your point about pitchers with established ability is well-taken. Bowden didn't do too badly in putting together a patchwork staff last year (though the big home park made it "better" than it seemed), but I'd like us to get past pigeonholing guys best suited to relief or the minors (like Hanrahan) into hopes for the starting rotation.

JON

I remember discussing with Kyle (who is the other guy who writes Nats Report) the plethora of pitchers we had, and we didn't know how we'd fit all these guys in. And then it donned on me that I was falling into the old trap of overvaluing the home team boys. Tim Redding? I actually want him as a number 4? I snapped out of it, but it was weird for a little bit there.

MISS CHATTER

Exactly, on getting a pitcher with a history of being good rather than someone who had a cup of coffee or a meager career in the majors prior (haha - get it? Prior?). I don't know who to target at this point, though. So what is our coherent rotation as it stands? Shawn Hill, John Patterson, Jason Bergmann, Matt Chico (?), Reddacsikippardannan? Let's see... veteran... veteran... I know, let's sign Roger Clemens to a four month contract! Oh wait, he may serve his contract out suspended or in a courtroom. Moving on... When will Freddy Garcia be over labrum surgery (ah, June)? Then we'd have two "Chief" pitchers!

BASIL

Yeah, it's sort of the same mess as last season's mess, except the guys we have now are generally the guys who replaced the chaff from last year, and some of those guys (Redding? Chico?) will become this year's chaff, leaving Dennis Tankersley as the great rotation savior or something. Ah, a bit pessimistic today, I know ...


Okay, so a new question without a proper transition: According to Barry Svrluga, the Nats are planning something or other as a replacement-caravan, conveniently held at things like an auto show. Now, I'll be upfront about this and say:

(1) I live in Richmond, so I have no real standing to complain; and

(2) meeting players in person isn't the type of thing that thrills me, so I don't really care.

But not everyone lives in a secondary market like I do, and not everyone thinks like I do. So the question is simple enough - are the Nats sufficiently reaching out to their fanbase, or are they sort of playing off/taking for granted the o