Harper
Power, patience, average, speed : the biggest problem seemingly (i'll say seemingly) is too much of a good thing. Specifically what to do with Zimm. Thoughts? I'm thinking play 1st vs lefties and LaRoche sits but that's not perfect. You pull your main power threat, a guy who's known as a good glove guy from 1st and you don't take out the worst offensive guy - namely Asdrubal
Chris
Playoffs give managers a lot of cover to do things they wouldn't ordinarily do. Like last year, the Braves finally pulled Uggla. So who's to say it won't be Zimmerman at first and Espi at 2nd against a LHP? That's probably the best combo you've got.
Harper
So you have Espy and Zimm in vs LHP and Cab and LaRoche vs RHP. You think it could happen. Do you think it will? You know assuming nothing weird like LaRoche hitting 4 homers in first 2 games
Chris
Will? Nah. Matt seems to like his veterans. If anyone's getting bumped, they'll find a way to put Harper on the bench.
Harper
Would you, could you play Zim at 3rd or is that a non-starter?
Chris
is it before the 14th inning?
Harper
13th
Basil
You mean Zimmermann the pitcher right?
Harper
Zimmerman, you know the face of the franchise after Stan Kasten
Basil
I'm not really sure what to do with Zimmerman, but I do like the prospect of a deep bench with flexibility. It seems as though the team has the platoon advantage scenarios pretty well covered.
Harper
So I'm hearing no to Zimm at the hot corner
Chris
Here's where Zimmerman is good: what's the one weakness of this team as you think about how a game actually would play out. (I'll wait…) Time's up. There's no good left-handed bat off the bench. Zimmerman essentially becomes your top pinch-hitter against right-handed pitching. That the best they have is Nate Schierholtz? Ugh. Zimmerman fills that role perfectly and honestly, I'd rather have a Michael Taylor or Stephen Souza than Nate at this point.
Basil
I see what you're saying. Good point.
Harper
We expect Nate the not-so-great to make it though. At least I do and if Soriano is off that leaves room for one more OF
Basil
In a five-game series, you probably take the extra position player right? In a seven-game series, you might need the extra pitcher...
Harper
Do you go Souza or Taylor? Based on limited info Taylor has the slight edge in speed and D but Souza is no slouch, got pop, and made that catch. I'm always for more pitching
Basil
I would take Taylor.
Chris
For the extremely limited role they'll have to play, does it matter? Which one's the better stealer/runner. That, barring catastrophe, is all they'll do.
Harper
Taylor then
Basil
Taylor probably for baserunning.
Chris
Related: up 3-1 in the 9th of game 5, do you bring in Taylor for Werth?
Harper
Rest of the bench is garbage but that's pretty much the modern bench. I bet most of playoff teams bench' wouldn't look any better.
I've voiced my concerns about Ramos - I think he's crashing. Just me?
Basil
Not just you.
Chris
My worry about Ramos is that any time he has a runner on first, it seems it's an automatic double play. He played 88 games and still hit into 17 DPs Ian Desmond hits into a bunch too. He also had 17. In 280 more ABs.
Harper
And 1.4 million Ks. 17 GIDP is good enough for T13th
Chris
In 88 games!
Harper
Catchers do it though. I see Rosario w/ 17 at 106 games; Martin 16, 111; d'Arnaud 15, 106; Ellis 15, 93; but you're right 17 in 88 is special. It's just because of all the Nats on base!
Is the Asdrubal love affair over? It went pretty quickly from "this guy might be good!" to "eh, better than Espy" (which if Espy was used right, might not even be the case) If it is that's that easy 7-8-9 pitchers love to have
Basil
In general? Yes. But he has serious "playoff hero" potential. He's a hacky middle infielder with some pop. One of those guys always seems to rise up with a big home run or a hot series. Wouldn't rule that out here.
Harper
Lombo's Dad! Original Lombo.
Chris
I'd love to see the Cab/Espi platoon. Sorta maximize what you get out of both. They did that for a while right after the trade, but it seems like they stopped doing that as much in September. But then maybe I don't know what I'm talking about.
Basil
Did we talk much about Harper yet? Any chance you see Williams sitting him against a Bumgardner or Kershaw type? I guess I should specify which Harper!
Harper
You mean Bryce. I'm Harper. I can see it, because they want to work in Zimm BUT I bet he starts vs Kershaw because he hit a HR once. I get a feeling that the Zimm decision for G3 vs Bumgarner is going to be based on how guys did in G1 & G2. LaRoche 0-fer? He's out. Cab 0-fer? He's out. Bryce 0-fer? You get it
Basil
Just a feeling, but I don't see ALR sitting. Not many teams sit their main HR threat .... which I guess is what he is ... during the playoffs. Although maybe the glut here creates a special scenario. I think we all know what's going to happen. Harper, I mean, Bryce will go 1-for-7 with a walk in the first two games and then sit against the Bum. Because that's a narrative.
Harper
I'm going to assume Werth/Rendon/Span are all just set it and forget it. The key to me, well as much as one player can be key for this team, is Desmond. If he slumps a pitcher could kind of work around that top-half to some degree.
Chris
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=desmoia01&year=2014&t=b#half
My impression is that he had a terrible first half (remember all the Es early on!?) and a really good second half to get where he was. But looking at where he is, that's sorta right. He upped his contact quite a bit, but the power seems to have disappeared a little bit . It's not gone... but... was there a conscious change in approach there? Just one of those things?
Harper
Maybe. Hard to read first half in itself because it’s two parts; the absolute mess of April and the low average decent pop May and June. He’s been better recently so I'm not worried but if I'm going to pick someone outside of Ramos/Cab to disappear in playoffs I'd bet Ian
Chris
He's certainly the type of hitter I could see some crappy right-handed sinkerballer (I always picture them in Cards uniforms) completely exploiting and turning inside out. But that's the beauty of the playoffs... as Basil said above. Over five games, who the hell knows? Maybe Strasburg drives in 4 in the opening game on the way to a sweep.
Basil
Desmond clearly has the most tail-spin potential for this team in a series. He's going to play no matter what, and he's the type of hitter who's at a heightened risk to get eaten alive by all-out strikeout pitching. Might not be an issue against SF, could be later on.
Chris
Interesting that Basil suggests K pitchers would eat Desmond alive while I suggest that contact guys could kill him. That's not a good sign!
Basil
Chris: Sheehan has a nice saying. Variance trumps everything. Not literally true, but it's a nice saying.
Chris
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=desmoia01&year=2014&t=b#power (He ate finesse pitchers alive)
Harper
Any defensive concerns? You know I think LaRoche and Werth are not great but neither are Morse-lost out there
Chris
Other than Werth going full Buckner?
Harper
I wonder if Matty would pull him late? Wasn't an issue in no-hitter, Werth didn't play
Chris
I think I said that's what I'm most looking forward to about this series: watching Span hook a ball into the left-field corner, and seeing how far he can run.
Harper
Morse is lucky if he finds it before Span is around 2nd, let alone gets to it
I don't worry about Matt do you? At worst he's going to be by the book, at best we might see something smart here or there
Chris
I'm amazed at how differently I'd answer this question now versus mid-May.
Harper
Well he still might bunt early with Bryce - I'm not ruling that out, so there's still hate-tweet possibilities for you
Basil
I expect Matt will be very by-the-book.
Chris
He was pretty consistently a bunter only with SP. Harper's bunts, it seems, were all his doing. And against a tough lefty, honestly, not necessarily the dumbest idea.
Basil
There's not really much bunting potential out there. The no. 2 hitter is an offensive force, relative to the slappy 2-hole type who does do bunting.
Harper
So nothing's perfect but what I'm hearing here is same as everywhere : offense good, SP great, RP good to great, Matty good enough. What are you feeling for the series? I called 3-1 in my blog but as you well know Needham, the playoffs are a crapshoot
Basil
Nats in four. Just my impression, no deep research -- who has time for that? -- but I see the Giants as a favorable match-up in many respects.
Harper
It's funny that working through this - how short a 5 game series really is. 3 losses seems like a lot but if the Nats lose one of the first two at home, looking at Bumgarner in G3, it gets real very quickly
Chris
The safe call is in 4, right? So I'll go with a sweep.
Harper
For who? Yeah if you're a pundit always go 4 for the team you like. 6 in a 7 game series usually you're off no more than a game and can tout that
Any final thoughts? Personally I hope the Mike Morse love is kept to a minimum and he doesn’t do anything big. I also want to see Lincecum at some point in a Nats rout.
Chris
Just wrapping around to the point I made earlier... I expect this team to win. I'm confident they will. While they could lose, I'd really be surprised. It's awesome going into something like this thinking that. Basically, for SF to win, there are about 10 different things that'd have to happen. For us? That list is much shorter.
Harper
Agree. Losing three or even 2 honestly, would surprise me. Not that the Nats that much better than SF, but I can plot out the Nats winning three before the Giants win #2 easier than the reverse
Basil
Chris pretty much nails it. A lot has to go right for SF to win. I'd almost rather see them in a best-of-7, as I think they'd get worn down, but you take what you're given. I do expect the Nats to make the NLCS.
Harper
Thanks for the chat and let's all hope this ends with Needham on vacation freaking out because he can't get the World Series on TV
Chris
:(
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