2104 NLDS Chat Session Part 2

Harper
Ok back! You know my thoughts on the rotation - Should be Roark, rather than Gio. Minor quibble but I feel you go with your best at this time of year

Basil

I'm not sure that the break between them is that huge. Gio offers strikeout ability, Roark might go an out or two deeper. Not saying that you're saying it's huge....you did say minor quibble.

Harper

It isn't, but the "big" reasons for going with Gio are silly. Roark isn't a pen guy. Hasn't been for years. And saving him for the "next five Octobers" (Luv ya Boz!) is silly...

Basil

I don't read Boz. Not to turn it back to the media topic, but I'll read Kilgore and Barry Savalaga.
Harper
It's not as bad, but that thinking reminds me of the idea that they had that they shouldn't ride Christian Garcia into the ground as a reliever because he could be a great starter for years. He had a lot more injury Q's but same thing applies. We're not talking 19 year old arms here. Use 'em when you got 'em or Smoke 'em if you got 'em

Basil

Yes, the Saul Rivera axiom.

That from a movie?

Harper

Yippee Kai-yay Mister Falcon. This is dry. Let's be more internetty. Which Nats is which Die Hard character? Don't say Span is Argyle That's racist!

Basil

Clippard is Tony. Look him up.

(Set-up guy to the telecom infiltration, wears glasses.)

Harper

Got it. If we expand to the playoffs Mattingly is definitely on the SWAT that tries to break into Nakatomi. But seriously - That's my only starting concern. I think Gio has more "blow-up tendency" so I'd rather have Roark. I still think Fister isn't as good as the year he's had but that's only means he's not awesome, merely very good

(I knew we'd sidetrack into Die Hard if Chris ever dropped out)

Chris

The thing with Gio is that he's basically been very good for the last month or so.

Basil

Gio can miss bats. That's very important in October.

Chris

There was a little bit of chatter from the scout-types that his mid-season struggles weren't so much injury, but just a lost 'feel' for his curve. So while I was yammering about shutting him down for a month to rest, others made the point that the only way he's going to get feel back is by actually pitching. He pitched. He pitched well. Score one for the scouts.

Harper

You know when else Gio did well in Sept?  2012. 1.74 ERA after middling June and July. Just saying. Just like the Pirates hotness -I try to go more "whole season" when looking at who to play unless there's a good reason not to

Chris

CASE CLOSED!

Harper

We can rate the superhunks now

Chris

Well, playing that game, if you're designing your playoff roster on April 1, you've got Gio as 2 or 3. Roark off, right? So... if we're thinking they're close now, might as well go with the one you had more faith in initially, right?

Basil

There's that. Unless there's a material change to Roark and/or Gio.

Harper

Not April 1, full season. Like I'm all for not having Stras start #1.

Chris - you hate Strasburg more than you hate every other Nat. Worried about him?

Chris

We have more info now to suspect that Roark is better than we thought. And our perception of Gio has taken a beating... but there's also a plausible explanation for his lost few months. So go Gio. Whatever. six of one.

Why would I hate Strasburg? He's got luck on his side!

Harper

Post season + regression = MVP

Chris

He's a different pitcher now than he was. His problem has been his inability to get his head out of his butt long enough to realize he's one of the five best pitchers on the planet. Matty, I think, has done an excellent job bringing him along, instilling some confidence in him -- things such as extending him an extra inning... letting him work through a 6th inning jam, etc. From day one, they've done everything to indicate that they have full faith in his abilities and that he's their ace. If he's not worrying about that, he's worrying about the important things like throwing his best pitches to the right spots.

Basil

Basically, Strasburg is 90% of a great pitcher. That10% tends to bunch up pretty badly. He has difficulty digging out of bad situations.Or has had.

Chris

I think there's also something to the piece Kilgore wrote a week or two ago: his season turned when he started pitching to his strengths, not the batters. When you've got stuff as good as his, you're the cock of the walk. It's the batters that need to adjust to you. This is where I think that Lobaton's influence has helped too. The Rays have a very unique way of approaching batters, and I think he brought some of that over with him. Nats pitchers throwing to him, for example, threw a higher percentage of offspeed pitches as pitch one than they did under other catchers or previous seasons. All those little things add up. Better strategy, and fewer worries about creature comforts... and he's finally what we expect him to be.

Harper

For three games

Chris

No fun with endpoints here... I just grabbed a date long ago enough: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=strasst01&t=p&year=2014&share=2.53#93-109-sum:pitching_gamelogs

2.61 ERA over 17 starts with an opposing slash line of .220 .258 .370? Yeah, sign me up. Little too much power yielded... but when they're only hitting .220, you can live with it.

Harper

The home run has been a bit of a bugaboo for him but only 1 in last 5 games

Chris

Yes, I just realized I defended and endorsed both Drew Storen and Stephen Strasburg in the last hour.

Harper

We're 20 minutes from you saying Acta and Bowden combo wasn't all that bad

Chris

They did do some great things!

Harper

for Jose Rijo, for a year or two

Basil

From a different point of view, wasn't BABIP the bugaboo for awhile?

Chris

Yeah, it was. BUT (I won't go into my full rant here) his BABIP was a reflection of his terrible command. When you leave a so-so fastball (and something was different with it early in the year) right down the pipe, it's gonna get ripped.

Harper

Any thoughts on ZNN or Fister?

ZNN makes my mind go blank. I loved that no-hitter from last week. Who pitched it? He's just so consistent, silly quality start streaks aside

Chris

Yeah, Zimmnn has always been my favorite pitcher to watch. He just goes up there and does his thing. I love that quote from spring training where McCatty had Zim and Strasburg answer the question: What're you trying to do on the mound. Strasburg said something like throw a no-hitter. Zim said he was just trying to get one out at a time. And that's all he does.

Harper

They are really going to miss Zimm when he's on the Brewers, but that's for a post post-season discussion

 

Chris

It's ok to point out that Fister's kinda been... meh lately, right? Of course Meh for Fister is still pretty good. Seems like his stretch has either been 6 scoreless of 3 in 5.

Harper

His walks have gone up I think that's what's causing his mehness. 2 out of 3 starts Fister is going to give up hits but not XBH ones so it's all BB related how the game ends up. Not a lot of hits mind you but enough for a couple runs in 6 IP

I think Fister's last outing hides a lot of what he had done recently 9Ks, 3H, 0BBs; but in 6 games before that it was like 2-3 Ks a game 6 H, 1-2 BB and 1 HR. I think the Giants are the worst team for him because they aren't looking to walk and can get by without the home run

Chris

The other thing with Fister is that at times it didn't seem that Matt trusted him. He'd be cruising along at 84 pitches in the 6th, a runner would get on, and the hook would come. I suspect we'll see a really short leash with him these playoffs too.