2014 NLDS Chat Session Part 1

Chris
This sorta feels like going to a Def Leppard concert. The band's back together! They're not quite what they used to be, are they?

Harper

So you guys happy with last night?

Chris

I'd have been happier with about 14 more innings and an injury or three. But all things considered, the Pirates scared me more, for reasons that don't seem obvious after last night's result.

Basil

I wanted to see the Pirates. It's an even year, so I figure now the Giants will win it all.

Harper

I wanted the Pirates but I think (think) the Giants are better for the Nats. Offensively they don't scare me as much

Chris

The Pirates pen strikes me as a lot stronger than the Giants. (Note: no actual research done). And in the playoffs, if you've got a smart manager (cough cough) you can really leverage those innings to shut the game down. Plus, I really like the idea of the Nats being able to hit about .813 on balls to left field.

Basil

Now MASN is ready with the ad campaign .... "Jake Peavy, Austin Kearns is coming for you!"

Yeah, the Giants look like kind of a mess. Left field, for instance. And the rotation behind Mad Bum and I guess Peavy doesn't seem so intimidating at this point.

Chris

I saw the stat that they were trotting around about how Tim Hudson has like a 2.50 ERA over the last 10 years against the Nats. But then someone pointed out that since the team got good in 2012, it's more like 3.50. So, this Hudson owns the Nats junk? Poppycock. Although that being said, he's that guile-filled Cardinals-sorta pitcher that terrifies me. The kind that if he's on, can use a team's aggressiveness against them. 6 innings later, you've had 4 baserunners and are losing 2-1.
 
Harper
I've always felt the Nats did fine versus Hudson. You'd look up and in the 2nd they'd have 2, by the 6th they'd have 4 and they'd win.

Chris

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_stats.cgi?full=1&params=oppon%7CWSN%7Chudsoti01%7Cpitch%7CAB%7C

Some good, some bad there.

Basil

I have the same subjective concern Chris does. It's the playoffs. You get a good start, some guy like Crawford bumps into one, and all of a sudden you're lining up three innings of your best relievers.

Chris

But that spins into the big picture for me going into the playoffs. I don't know if the Nats will win the World Series, but on any given night, I'm pretty confident they'll win. It's a rare feeling when you expect, not hope, to win.

Basil

Oh, certainly. They're solid to very good to excellent in most facets.

Speaking of which, can we talk about the bullpen?

Chris

No.

Basil

It's settled then!

Harper

it's OK! Not as good as people want you to believe.

Chris

Way to hijack the conversation, basil

Basil

Sorry :-(

Harper

I think there isn't a spot in the pen I don't question. Storen's been great but has 2012 hanging over his head. If there is anything about Storen you do worry about, its mental make-up

Basil

I love Clippard, but he's fairly combustible for a very good shut-down reliever with nice peripherals.

Harper

Yeah, Clippard isn't the Clip of the past few years. He's still good but he's caught some breaks this year and when he goes - he goes.

Chris

Even when Clip's going well, he's as likely to put two on and escape as he is to shut them down 1-2-3.

Harper

As far as Matty is concerned that's 8-9 with Soriano, who is toast.

Chris

Does Soriano make your roster? I don't think he does. For a middle guy, if he can't go at least 1.2, what's the point?

Harper

He doesn't make mine and based on usage I don't see how he makes the Nats

Basil

It's a pretty big story if he doesn't, no?

Harper

Totally, but only to media and to Soriano, who guess what, isn't there!

Chris

Here's the thing on him: if you believe the stories, he's not a Rizzo guy. He was a Lerner signing. And he's done at the end of the year. Rizzo probably doesn't feel any loyalty to him in a degree he would if he was trying to clean up his own mistake.

Harper

The worst outcome would be leaving him off and Storen implodes. Casual fans (& MASN Commenters) will explode

Chris

I don't think so

Harper

HMMMMMMMMM?

Chris

I think the casual fans and MASN commenters hate Soriano.  I think they'd say "If that piece of crap was better, we wouldn't have had to put poor Droooooooooo into an uncomfortable role"

Harper

These people who live in your head are very forgiving. Like the aftermath of the Royals game. The issue was using Ventura but to a good segment of fans/sports guys the issue was pulling Shields  

Basil

It's pretty much a hindsight trap, as Harper says. If something goes wrong, people will say that the Nats had a 30-plus save guy on the sidelines.

Chris

"people". who? The national level writers will. The local guys will shrug and move on. We're not in New York in terms of bomb-throwing, poo-stirring media.

Basil

I think we can agree that elements in the media will turn any bad result into a bad decision.

Harper

Local guys will get it.  I'm talking about what I'll hear on the radios and read on the interwebs

Chris

That's on you for listening to the radio then!

Basil

Next on the Subway Fresh Take Hotline, Chris....

Chris

But circling back...

I'm the biggest Storen-hater around here, and I'm supremely confident in him this postseason.

Harper

Wait a second. That doesn't make sense!

Chris

His issues last year, I think, were an offshoot of some injuries, and some bad mechanics. He's gotten that fixed. He's got a regular repeatable delivery and he's throwing his pitches (mostly) to the right spots with the right amount of movement.  He's not the same pitcher he was in 2013.

And if Davey weren't such a crap-for-brains, Storen wouldn't have been asked to throw 30 pitches on back-to-back-to-back nights in 2012.

Basil

This is where I'm kind of blind on the issue. I'm a cord-cutter, I'm not local, and I don't do fancy internet stuff. So I don't watch much, can't see Storen pitch. But Charlie & Dave have portrayed him as pretty much nails.

Harper

Storen 2014 is the Storen we thought he'd be up through Game 4 2012

Chris

The Storen sucks narrative (which I've championed!) was built on terrible bullpen usage by a senile manager, followed by a lost sort of year where he was battling through mechanics and injury.

Harper

Yes. Tou sold a myth #StorenWarningisaLie

What about the rest of the pen - you think Roark will be ok in there? You trust Williams to make the right moves if a starter can't make it past 5?  I'm fine with Matty 8th and on. Doesn't seem married to

Clippard if he looks bad, but before that I'm iffy.  

Basil

Roark could functionally be another Stammen. A bridge or perhaps insurance if Gio hits 110 pitches in the 4th.

Chris

I think Matty really used these last six weeks or so testing his guys out in various roles. I don't have confidence, per se, in any single one of these pitchers. But he has options from both side of the plate and, if he does it right, can really get some favorable matchups going.

Basil

Feeling good about the lefty situation?

Chris

Thornton's a beast. Blevins had a bad year, but has been decent against LHB most of the time, especially late.

Harper

If Blevins faces a righty I'm advocating for Yost. That's about the only unbreakable rule for this pen
 
Basil
Might not matter too much in round one. It's pretty much just Belt from the left side, I think.

Harper

I like the rest of the guys - though Stammen has kind of been like Clip this year. Still good but feeling like "Ok we're nearing the end of what he was"
 
Basil
Stammen is a nice guy to have in the regular season. I do like relievers who go more than one. That said, he's more of a marathon type than a sprint type, and you need the sprinters in the playoffs.

Harper

I think Chris has it right in that the arms are here but it's a mix and match thing before the end. Personally I think it'll only come up once or twice this playoffs and I think Matt will get it right. I think. It's not that hard - obvious choices will do fine

Chris

The other factor: Gio aside, do you really think any of our pitchers'll be out before the 6th inning?

Harper

Not against SF, they don't walk. Maybe 1 in 4 games someone will just get hit.

Basil

No. Not really. So we're talking about the seventh inning, mainly.

Chris

Then it's just a matter of patchworking through an inning or so before the clip 'n' save returns and if they are out before the 6th inning, how Stammen's looking is probably the least of the worries.

Harper

True.  Part of me worries that Matt might have a quick trigger on Clip in the 8^th, but then I think : I WANT a quick trigger in the playoffs, especially if the other arms are good enough and I think they are.

Chris
it's not so much that they're good enough (though they're plenty good). It's that they're all mostly interchangeable, so find the ones that are having a good night.

Harper

Detwiler make it?

Basil

Totally forgot about him.

Harper

It's either him or Blevins for LHP. You really don't need 3 multi-inning relievers do you?

Basil

Not in this series. I can see the value of a lefty who can stretch it out a bit in a longer series, though